2007-11-09 00:11:11
The Current Global Economic Situation is Extra Scary
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I've been pretty heavily involved in studying economics and the capital markets for nearly a decade now. This is by FAR the worst economic situation that we've found ourselves in over the past few decades. Each day it just seems like we are sliding into a deeper and deeper economic quagmire. There are so many bad things happening right now that I don't even know where to start.
First off, you have the price of oil which is about to top $100. No matter how anyone tries to spin this, $100 oil is devastating to the growth of the world economy.
The US dollar is falling off the face of the earth. If the US dollar continues to collapse, we run the risk of a major global economic meltdown
China has stated that they are looking to diversify out of US dollars, which again, doesn't help the situation. Considering that they have over one trillion in reserves (how much of that is held in US dollars, I don't know), it is not very re-assuring.
The global real estate market, as a whole, has taken it on the chin over the past year, mainly due to a meltdown in subprime. The US and the UK have been the two major countries affected so far. However, if you consider that we do in fact live in a global economy, then surely the impact will be felt all around the world?
As always, most people are WAY over their heads in debt. Mortgage debt, credit card debt, whatever .. the average person owes an extraordinary amount of money.
The United States has an unprecedented amount of debt. When you add in their obligations to social security and Medicare, the amount of debt on their books is absolutely mind-boggling.
Geo-political worries. Can you imagine if a major terrorist attack took place today, when the global economic situation is so fragile? What would a sudden spike to $130-$140 for oil do to the global economy? Could the United States absorb another such shock to the system?
Then you have major brokerages announcing major writedowns for losses on their books. Subprime mortgage companies going out of business. People being foreclosed. People walking away from their mortgages.
I mean oil is nearly $100, the US dollar is taking a swan dive and gold is almost $1000 an ounce, and no one really seems to care? This is scary, scary stuff.
Filed under: The Economic Meltdown | Stock Market Education
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