Romney, Gingrich Frontrunners For Republican Nomination

According to Intrade.com (and various polls), Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are the two current frontrunners for the Republican Presidential nomination.

Mitt Romney has been rock solid ever since announcing his intentions to seek the Republican nomination. Romney has managed to avoid any major gaffes and has seen his support remain fairly steady.

Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, has seen his chances for the Republican nomination soar in recent months. Gingrich was given basically zero chance of winning just a few months ago, but thanks to some strong debate performances has seen his support balloon since the beginning of October.

Will Gingrich spectacularly flame out like Rick Perry and Herman Cain did, or will he continue to mount a serious challenge to Mitt Romney?

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According to Intrade.com, Mitt Romney is still the favorite to win the Republican nomination, but Gingrich has been gaining ground in recent weeks.

Intrade.com, which is an online prediction market where traders can wager real money on the outcome of events, currently lists Romney at 45.6% to win the Republican nomination. Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, is currently listed at 34.8%.

Traders on Intrade.com trade "contracts" - the maximum value of a contract is $10, while the minimum value is $0.

If an event occurs, then a contract is worth the maximum of $10. If an event doesn't occur, then the contract is worth $0.

For instance, the Mitt Romney to Win the Republican Nomination contract is currently trading at $4.56, which means that he has a 45.6% chance of winning the nomination.

The Mitt Romney contract traded as high as $7 (70% chance of winning) just a few weeks ago, but has come down thanks to Newt's hard charge.

The Newt Gingrich contract, on the other hand, is currently trading at $3.48. This contract was practically worthless just a few weeks ago, as it was trading for just pennies at the time.

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Who do you think will win the nomination? Who do you think stands the best chance against Barack Obama in 2012?

Source: Intrade.com


Filed under: General Knowledge



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