Intrade: Mitt Romney a Near Lock to Win Republican Nomination
According to online prediction market Intrade.com, Mitt Romney is a near lock to secure the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination.
According to Intrade.com, the “Mitt Romney to Win Republican Nomination” contract is currently trading at 91.6% (or $9.16). Each contract has a maximum value of $10 and a minimum value of $0. So, if you bought the Romney contract for $9.16 and Romney ends up securing the nomination, then your maximum profit would be $0.84 ($10 - $9.16).
Romney’s competitors for the nomination are merely afterthoughts at this point, at least according to the traders on Intrade.com. Here are the rest of the numbers:
Newt Gingrich - 3.5%
Ron Paul - 2.8%
Santorum, Perry - Less than 1%
In the short-term, Intrade.com traders give Romney a 91.4% of winning the South Carolina primary. If Romney decisively wins in South Carolina, expect the field of Republican candidates to continue to be pared down.
Gingrich, on the other hand, is currently listed at 6.7% to win the South Carolina primary. Many believe that Gingrich will drop out of the race if he doesn’t win South Carolina.
According to Intrade.com, Mitt Romney currently has a 42.8% chance of winning the 2012 Presidential election.
Barack Obama, on the other hand, is currently listed at 51.5%.
Filed under: General Knowledge