Traders Give Obamacare 70.6% Chance of Being Declared Unconstitutional

Supreme Court - Building PhotoTo say that Thursday is a big day for President Obama would be the understatement of the century.

The Supreme Court is expected to hand down their decision regarding the constitutionality of some or all of the elements of Obamacare, which is formally known as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), sometime on Thursday.

According to, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act "requires individuals not covered by employer- or government-sponsored insurance plays to maintain minimal essential health coverage or pay a penalty unless exempted for religious beliefs or financial hardship, a provision commonly referred to as the individual mandate."

The PPACA is the very definition of a partisan bill - it passed the Senate in late 2009 with zero Republican votes, and passed the House of Representatives in March of 2010 with - you guessed it - zero Republican votes.

The issue over the constitutionality of the bill made its way to the Supreme Court in March of this year. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments between March 26th and March 28th, and will reportedly be rendering their decision tomorrow (June 28th).


According to the traders on, there is a 70.6% chance that the US Supreme Court will rule the individual mandate unconstitutional on Thursday. is an online prediction market where people bet real money on the outcome of certain events. Each contract is worth a maximum of $10 - the "US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" contract is currently trading at $7.06, which means that there is a 70.6% of this happening (at least in the minds of the traders).

The contract was trading in the sub $4s before the oral arguments in March before spiking higher to $6+.


What will the Supreme Court have to say re: Obamacare? We'll soon find out..



Filed under: General Knowledge

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