54.5% Chance of President Obama Winning Second Term
According to Intrade.com, President Barack Obama currently has a 54.5% chance of winning a second term in the White House. Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is currently listed at 45.5%.
Intrade.com, which has been mentioned frequently during this election cycle (including during the post-debate round table on CNN last night), is an online prediction market where people bet real money on the outcome of certain events.
Each "contract" is worth a minimum of $0 and a maximum of $10. If an event is 100% likely to happen, the contract will be worth $10. If an event absolutely will not happen, the contract will be worth $0.
As of right now, the "Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012" contract is trading at around $5.45, while the "Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012" contract is currently trading at $4.55.
Both candidates and their supporters can take something from these numbers. President Obama is currently ahead, but Mitt Romney has been able to close the distance. Nationwide polls tell the same story, with Romney significantly closing the distance on President Obama in the past couple of weeks. As a matter of fact, Gallup has Romney ahead by 5 points amongst "likely voters".
The Barack Obama contract surged to almost $8 in late September / early October, meaning that Intrade.com traders felt as though Obama had a near 80% chance of winning a second term at the time. The Mitt Romney contract, on the other hand, traded down to almost $2/contract less than a month ago. Following Mitt Romney's strong performance in the first Presidential debate, the Romney contract surged off of its lows and currently sits at around $4.55.
The "Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012" contract is currently trading at its all-time high.
The story at Intrade.com is the same everywhere else - this is going to be a photo finish.
Filed under: General Knowledge