National Intelligence Council Predicts Continued Ascent of China's Economy

Back in 2010, China officially passed Japan to become the world's second largest economy. At the time, the US economy was roughly 2.5x the size of China's.

According to a recently released report from the National Intelligence Council titled "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds", China will possess the world's largest economy by 2030, if not sooner.

The report lists four "megatrends" that are predicted to occur over the next 20 years or so, including individual empowerment, increased demand for food, water and energy, and the diffusion of global power. The report predicts that the "historical rise of the West since 1750" will largely be reversed, with Asia's "weight" in the global economy being restored.

According to the report, "Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP, population size, military spending, and technological investment" by 2030. Leading the charge will be China, which likely have a larger economy than the United States "a few years before 2030".

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It should also be pointed out that the report lists "A Democratic or Collapsed China" as one of the eight potential black swans that could have the greatest disruptive impact on the world over the next two decades. A collapsed China "would trigger political unrest and shock the global economy".

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China continues to use its growing economic might to extend its influence throughout the world.

For instance, China currently owns over $1.1 trillion in US debt, and they use this large position to add a loud voice to the debate over US monetary policy.

Whether it's piling money into the US real estate market or completing mega purchases of Canadian energy companies or making investments in Greece when hardly anyone else will, China continues to use its growing economic might to extend its influence throughout the world.

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Source: GlobalTrends2030.files.wordpress.com - Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (*.pdf)

Filed under: General Knowledge