How Well Will The Republican Party Do on Tuesday?

According to a recent poll on CNN.com, a full 75% of Americans "say things are going badly in the country".

To give you some perspective, CNN reports that this percentage is "higher than it has been on the eve of any midterm election since the question was first asked in the mid-1970s".

In 1994 and 2006, when there were major swings in the House and Senate (1994 was a swing towards the Republican side, 2006 was a swing towards the Democrats), roughly 50% of those surveyed were happy with the current state of the country.

So, in short - voter discontent is off the charts right now.

With the Democrats currently in control of the White House, House of Representatives and Senate, they are obviously going to receive the brunt of the voter anger on Tuesday.

But how bad will it be? Will Tuesday be a "rout" as some in the media are predicting?

To get an idea of what might happen on Tuesday, let's took a look at Intrade.com.

Intrade.com is a well-known site that acts as a "prediction market". Basically, you can put money down on your predictions, and the site will act as a market maker, matching up buyers and sellers.

All "markets" trade between 0 and 100. If something is a lock to happen, then the market will be trading at 100. If there is zero chance that something will happen, then the market will be trading at 0.

For instance - Intrade.com currently has the chances of the Republicans controlling the House of Representatives after tomorrow's election at 93.8.

This means, according to everybody who has put money down on their predictions, that there is a 93.8% chance of the Republicans gaining control of the House after tomorrow. That's a near lock.

How about the Senate?

As of right now, here is how it looks:

Senate Control After Tuesday?

Dems - 43.5%
Republicans - 14.5%
Neither Party - 46.9%

So, as of this second, Intrade.com is predicting (based on the opinion of the general public) that the greatest likelihood is for neither party to have control of the Senate after tomorrow's midterm elections.

How many seats will the Republicans gain in the House of Representatives tomorrow?

According to Intrade.com, there is a 54.1% likelihood that the Republicans will take home 60 or more seats. There is currently a 84.5% likelihood that the Republicans will gain a minimum of 50 seats tomorrow, according to Intrade.com.

According to Intrade.com, the Republicans are likely to hold a minimum of 48 Senate seats after tomorrow's results. According to the site, there is currently an 86.9% chance that the Republicans will hold at least 48 Senate seats after tomorrow's results.

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There you go - it will be interesting to see how things end up panning out on Tuesday.

Source: Intrade.com

Source: CNN.com - CNN Poll: Those Who Say Things Going Poorly Higher Than 1994 or 2006

Filed under: General Knowledge