62.5% Chance of Democrats Winning in 2012, According to Intrade.com

Obama Election Campaign Logo - 2008Back in December of 2010, I wrote an article titled "Trying to Predict The Results of the 2012 Presidential Election With The Help of Intrade.com".

At the time that I wrote the article, the Democrats, according to Intrade.com, had a 55.9% chance of winning the 2012 Presidential election. Intrade.com is a widely followed "prediction market" where people can buy and sell predictions for real money. For instance, if you wanted to bet on the Democrats holding the White House back in December of 2010, then you could have bought a share for $5.59 (this translates to 55.9%, as the maximum value of a share is $10). If the Democrats hold the White House in 2012, then your $5.59 share would be worth the maximum of $10 (which translates to 100%). If the Democrats lose the White House in 2012, then your share would be worthless.

Because people are actually putting down real money on these buys and sells, the estimates tend to be fairly accurate.


As mentioned, the going rate on the Democrats winning in 2012 was $5.59 per share back in December, which translated into the party having a 55.9% chance of winning.

A great deal has transpired since mid-December. The Middle East and Northern Africa have erupted into chaos and anarchy, while the US economy seems to be finally turning the corner.

Have the last three months helped or hurt the Democrats?

According to Intrade.com, the answer is - helped.

As it stands right now, the "Democratic Party candidate to win 2012 Presidential Election" contract would cost you $6.25. This means that, according to Intrade.com, President Obama (assuming that he is the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2012) has a 62.5% chance of winning in 2012.


The going rate for the "Republican Party candidate to win the 2012 Presidential Election" is currently $3.50, meaning that Intrade.com believes that there is a 35% chance of the Republicans winning in 2012.

According to Intrade, the likely opponent for President Obama in 2012 is Mitt Romney. Let's look at the going rate for some of the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 contracts as of this moment:

Mitt Romney - 25.3%
Tim Pawlenty - 13.0%
Mitch Daniels - 11.9%
Mike Huckabee - 8.7%
Sarah Palin - 6.7%
Newt Gingrich - 6.3%
Jon Huntsman - 5.6%
Donald Trump - 2.8%
Ron Paul - 1.9%


Source: Intrade.com

Source: Davemanuel.com - Trying To Predict The Results of the 2012 Presidential Election With The Help of Intrade.com

Filed under: General Knowledge

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