Romney Leading in Polls Heading Into Next Week’s Primary

Elections - Voting station - IllustrationCandidates for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination are pulling out all the stops ahead of the New Hampshire primary next week.

Mitt Romney won an ultra-close decision over Rick Santorum in the recent Iowa caucus. In the end, Romney ended up edging out Santorum by a razor-thin margin of just 8 votes.

Will Santorum be able to build on this momentum heading into next week’s New Hampshire primary, or will Romney beat back yet another upstart challenger to eventually secure the nomination?


There is a reason why this New Hampshire primary is so important. Since 1976, the front-runner directly after the New Hampshire primary has gone on to win the Republican nomination each and every time.

In 2008, Mike Huckabee enjoyed a 5 point lead over both Giuliani and John McCain. After the New Hampshire primary, McCain surged to a 14 point lead over Huckabee amongst Republican and Republican-leaning independents and eventually went on to win the nomination.

In 2000, George W. Bush enjoyed a 64%-15% lead over John McCain before the New Hampshire primary. His lead was whittled down to 56-33% after the primary, but he still went on to win the nomination.

In 1996, Bob Dole enjoyed a comfortable 16 point lead over Buchanan after the New Hampshire primary and eventually went on to win the Republican nomination, eventually falling to Bill Clinton in the Presidential election.

In 1992, George H.W. Bush saw his lead over Buchanan erode slightly after the New Hampshire primary (84%-11% down to 78%-20%), but he was still able to comfortably secure the Republican nomination for President.

In 1980, George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan were in a dead heat heading into the New Hampshire Primary. After the primary, Reagan had opened up a 30 point lead and eventually went on to secure the Republican nomination and become one of the most popular US Presidents of all time.

In 1976, Gerald Ford enjoyed a 20 point lead over Ronald Reagan heading into the New Hampshire primary. Reagan closed the gap by ten points after the New Hampshire primary, but Ford eventually went on to secure the nomination.


Depending on who you ask, Mitt Romney is currently enjoying a 15-20 point over Newt Gingrich in New Hampshire polls. Romney also recently picked up a key endorsement from a former rival, John McCain.

The leader after next week’s New Hampshire primary will very likely end up securing the Republican nomination for President, which is why there is so much on the line right now.


Filed under: General Knowledge

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