Consensus Forecast Is For Zero Change In February Unemployment Rate

Employment Paper - IllustrationThe monthly jobs reports are taking on increasing significance as the lead-up continues to the Presidential election.

Over the past few months, President Obama’s approval ratings have been bolstered by a dropping unemployment rate. The national unemployment rate has dropped for five straight months - here is the progression:

September 2011 - 9.1%
October 2011 - 9.0%
November 2011 - 8.6%
December 2011 - 8.5%
January 2012 - 8.3%

A continued drop in the unemployment rate will obviously be good for Barack Obama and his re-election campaign, while a stabilization or increase in the rate will likely bolster the Republicans chances of taking the White House in 2012.


As for February’s unemployment number, the consensus view is that things will remain unchanged.

According to, 33 of the 73 economists that were surveyed believe that the unemployment rate will remain at 8.3%, while 27 believe that there will be a drop down to 8.2%.


The February jobs number is due to be released before the open of trading on Friday.

Source: Historical Unemployment Rates

Filed under: General Knowledge

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