Democrats Currently Listed at 55% To Retain White House

I know, I know - it's pretty early to be talking about the 2016 US Presidential election. After all, we are just 3 1/2 months out from the last election.

Having said that, we are already starting to hear some rumblings about which people may or may not be running for President in 2016.

On the Republican side, names such as Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Bobby Jindal are being mentioned as potential Republican candidates for President. Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey, has seen his popularity soar since Hurricane Sandy hit the east coast last year, and is being mentioned as a possible Presidential candidate.

On the Democratic side, it is basically Hillary Clinton and then everybody else at this point. Hillary Clinton, who recently left her post as Secretary of State, is seen as being the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination if she chooses to run in 2016. Her age (she will be 69 by the time the 2016 election rolls around) and health will likely be the two major determining factors in deciding whether or not she runs in the next Presidential election.

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Intrade.com, which is an online prediction market where people can bet real money on the outcome of events, has the Democrats as the favorites to win the Presidential election in 2016.

The "Democratic Party candidate to win the 2016 US Presidential election" contract is currently trading at $5.50/share, which means that the traders on Intrade believe that there is a 55% chance of the Democrats holding on to the White House in the next election (a contract has a maximum value of $10).

The "Republican Party candidate to win the 2016 US Presidential election" contract, on the other hand, is currently trading at $4.55/share, which means that Intrade traders believe that there is a 45.5% chance of the Republicans winning in 2016.

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In the end, the state of the US economy will likely determine who wins the White House in 2016. If the economy doesn't meaningfully improve between now and 2016 (and bring the national unemployment rate down with it), you would have to think that the Republicans would have the edge in 2016. If the economy can pick up steam over the next four years, we may be looking at an uninterrupted 12 year stretch of having a Democrat in the White House.

Source: Intrade.com

Filed under: General Knowledge