President Trump Currently Seen as Clear Favorite To Win US Presidential Election

Prediction markets do a much better job of telling us what is going to happen in future events than polling.

The reason?

Real money is on the line.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket are fascinating to watch, as they ebb and flow in real-time as people from all around the world bet on any number of different markets.

As of this moment, over $135 million USD has been bet on the "Presidential Election Winner 2024" market on Polymarket.

Some individuals have bet literally millions of dollars on the outcome.

In fact, President Trump posted a screenshot of the current Polymarket odds to win the 2024 US Presidential election on his social media site, Truth Social.

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So what are prediction markets telling us about the 2024 US Presidential election?

It will be Donald Trump vs Joe Biden, and Donald Trump will win handily.

As of this moment, President Trump has a 56% chance of winning another term in the White House in 2024, while Joe Biden trails at just 38%.

There is always the possibility that Biden drops out of the race, which is why Michelle Obama is listed at 3%, and Gavin Newsom is listed at 1%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who will be running as a third party candidate, is listed at 2%.

A total of $16,596,623 has been bet on Trump to win, while $15.6 million has been bet on Biden.

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There are seven battleground states that will decide the 2024 election - Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.

Trump is doing well in all seven states.

Let's see what the Polymarket odds look like for each of these seven states:

1. Wisconsin - 53% Democrat, 45% Republican.

Biden won Wisconsin 49.45% to 48.82% in 2020, and there are many who think that Trump could take Wisconsin.

2. Arizona - 58% Republican, 38% Democrat.

Arizona famously went to Biden in 2020, but Trump is currently polling about 4 points ahead as of this moment.

3. Georgia - 64% Republican, 35% Democrat.

One of the "coin flip" states that is trending very much in Trump's direction. Trump is polling very well in the state, with the New York Times putting him ahead by as many as 9 points.

4. Michigan - 51% Democrat, 45% Republican.

Another state that is very much up for grabs. Polymarket has the Democrats with the slight edge, though polls have Trump narrowly ahead.

5. Pennsylvania - 51% Democrat, 49% Republican.

This is a coin flip on Polymarket. The fact that Pennsylvania is even up for grabs is a sign of trouble for Biden.

6. North Carolina - 76% Republican, 24% Democrat.

This one seems to be in the bag for Trump.

7. Nevada - 61% Republican, 38% Democrat.

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Biden has seen his popularity drop, which means that he likely won't flip any states that traditionally vote Republican.

If Arizona and Nevada go to Trump (which looks likely), this means that Trump would have 268 electoral votes in the bag.

This would leave the 44 electoral college votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as the votes that will decide the election. *Florida, which is typically seen as a "swing" state, is essentially a lock for Trump in 2024*

This is the problem that the Biden campaign has heading into the 2024 election - they need to run the board on Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennysylvania in order to win re-election.

If even one of these states goes to Trump, the Democrats will almost certainly lose.

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There is also one more state to watch as a potential wild card - Minnesota.

Biden is just a few points ahead in the state - some polls even have Trump and Biden tied in Minnesota.

If Trump pulls off a surprise and takes Minnesota, he could lose Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and still win the election.

Filed under: General Knowledge