2009-01-30 07:38:22
When Will This Recession End?
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According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the current recession began in December of 2007. This would mean that the recession is nearly 14 months old at this point.
A recession is defined as being the reduction of a country's gross domestic product for at least two quarters (source: Wikipedia). This would mean that, by definition, a recession has to last at least six months in order to qualify as a recession in the first place.
Now, there is no way that a person can state with 100% certainty when a recession is going to end. It's just impossible.
Having said that, we can look at historical data to try and get an idea of how long this recession might last. There have been a number of recessions over the past 150 years - expansion and contraction is just a normal part of an economic cycle.
This is the second recession that we've gone through in the past decade. The first took place in the aftermath of 9/11 in 2001, and lasted into 2002.
Now, what has been the length of an average recession in the past? Let's take a look.
Since 1945, the average recession has lasted just 10.2 months.
If we include the Great Depression era, then that number jumps to 22 months.
If we go back to the beginning of 1900, then the average length of a recession settles in at 14.4 months.
Now, some of you might view the number since 1945 and assume that we will be exiting this current recession any day.
This current recession is, without a doubt, the most severe since the Great Depression. There hasn't been this type of widespread asset destruction since the late 20's / early 30's.
The "Great Depression" began on October 29th, 1929 and ended with the onset of World War II in 1939. There were a number of "recessions" that took place during this time, with the last one starting in 1937 and lasting through most of 1938.
Now, I'm not saying that we are going to have ten years worth of recessions, as I don't think that the current situation is as severe as it was in 1929.
Having said that - I also don't expect a miraculous V-shaped economic recovery either. It will take a long time to stabilize the global economy and inspire confidence in consumers once again. Banks aren't lending and people are reeling after watching their net worths decline by 30-40%+.
Why did I write this article?
I'm a bit tired of hearing people say that "the average recession lasts 14.4 months, so we should be just about done".
These people need to take into account the severity of this current downturn, and adjust their expectations accordingly.
My personal opinion? Our economy will begin to meaningfully recover in mid 2010. I believe that there are too many issues to be worked out in the meantime (banks, jobs, etc) for a recover to take place before then. Just my opinion though.. what's yours?
Filed under: The Economic Meltdown
4 COMMENTS - What Say You?
Comment by csmiller on June 13, 2009 @ 10:46 pm
I think that it is hard to predict how the current economic issues will work them selves out. Even with this huge stimulus packing that the government is handing out, there doesn't seem to be that much improvement right now. I don't think that the government giving everyone big amounts of money will miraculous turn the economy around. Things take time. I am going to remain optimistic about things. I just hope that things will get better soon, because everyone is suffering right now.
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Comment by carrie on July 22, 2009 @ 9:59 am
I think this recession is going to take a lot of time before there is any turn around. Many people have felt the crunch or even worse and lost almost everything. The government seems to be trying with all these bail outs but it just isn't enough to get the americans going again. Many wont spent out of their means for years to come. This could slow the recession progress down. I know after all this i wont.
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Comment by Percy on September 09, 2009 @ 6:59 pm
this recession is realy playing a greater disaster role.ive seen n seeing enough already,and its only the beginning.but i put my faith in God that he can end it.
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Comment by CharlesC on November 18, 2009 @ 1:40 pm
I think the recession is no where near over. Too much spending and not enough saving is generally what caused in. Can't have people still loosing work, still loosing homes, and saying the recession is over. People loosing homes effect banks, industries filing bankruptcy effects stock holders, jobs effect the overall economy.. Banks should have not been so easy to lend to anyone. Even automobile are still being repo and sales of new cars down. And now the President fears a double dip recession. Meaning the economy was doing better for a little while due to the stimulous money, bailout money, ect.. but could slide further in the near future.
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