Currently Predicting Obama Victory in 2012

Intrade Company LogoA few new polls were released this week that reveal the popularity of President Obama roughly two years into his presidency.

A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll revealed that President Obama currently possesses an approval rating of just 40% and a disapproval rating of 51%.

The poll also revealed that a full 64% of respondents don't believe that Obama will receive a second term.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll revealed that 49% of those surveyed approve of the job that President Obama is doing as president, while 47% disapprove.

So what does this mean? According to the Washington Post/ABC News poll, President Obama's approval rating has dropped nearly 20 points in almost two years. He must be on his way out in 2012, right?

Well, according to "global prediction market", the Democrats are still the clear frontrunners to keep the White House in 2012. allows people to buy and sell contracts whose values are derived from the probability of certain events taking place. Each contract is valued at between 0 and 100 - if an event is 100% certain not to take place, then the contract is valued at 0, and if an event is guaranteed to take place, then the contract is valued at 100. Buyers and sellers of the contracts determine the prices, just like in the stock market.

For instance, you can currently buy/sell a contract that is based on whether or not the US economy will fall into a recession in 2011. The cost to buy this contract is 16.5 - the cost to sell the contract is 16.0. If you bought this contract today at 16.5 and the United States fell into a recession in 2011, then your contract would increase in value to 100.

There is real money involved in these contracts, and services over 100,000 traders. Since 2001, the company has processed over 600,000,000 orders.

In short - this site can be a pretty good way of determining the current odds of an event taking place.

Here is where the contracts for the 2012 Presidential Election (by party) are trading as of right now:

Democrats Win - 55.1 to Sell, 55.9 to Buy
Republicans Win - 41.6 to Sell, 42.7 to Buy

14,375 Democrat contracts have traded hands, while 12,119 Republican contracts have traded hands.

The likely opponent for President Obama? Let's look at the contract prices as of right now:

Romney, 21.4 to Sell, 22.3 to Buy
Palin, 19.1 to Sell, 19.5 to Buy
Thune, 11.7 to Sell, 11.8 to Buy
Huckabee, 6.9 to Sell, 7.1 to Buy
Daniels, 6.5 to Sell, 6.7 to Buy
Pawlenty, 5.9 to Sell, 6.0 to Buy
Barbour, 4.3 to Sell, 4.4 to Buy
Gingrich, 4.2 to Sell, 4.3 to Buy
Jeb Bush, 4.1 to Sell, 4.2 to Buy


While Obama is currently the favorite to retain the White House in 2012 on, the story is not so favorable for Democrats when it comes to the House of Representatives and Senate after the 2012 Congressional Elections.

Here are the current contract prices for House of Representatives control after the 2012 Congressional Elections:

Democrat Control, 25.4 to Sell, 32.0 to Buy
Republican Control, 70.2 to Sell, 73.2 to Buy

And here are the Senate prices:

Democrat Control, 20.1 to Sell, 31.0 to Buy
Republican Control, 65.0 to Sell, 75.0 to Buy
Neither in Control, 5.1 to Sell, 8.9 to Buy


So, as you can see, there is a little something for everybody in these numbers from

President Obama is currently a favorite to win in 2012, but the Republicans are favored to win control of both Houses.


Filed under: General Knowledge

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