Intrade: Romney Overwhelming Favorite For Republican Nomination in 2012

On October 10th, Gallup.com released an article in which they detailed the shocking rise of Herman Cain in the battle to win the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2012.

According to the article, Herman Cain now has the support of 18% of the Republican and Republican-leaning independents that were surveyed by Gallup.com. Cain was second only to Mitt Romney, who has the backing of a reported 20% of all Republican and Republican-leaning independents that were included in the survey.

There is no doubt that Cain has surged in recent weeks, much to the detriment of Mitt Romney and Rick Perry (Perry has been especially hard hit, dropping from 31% support to just 15% in less than a month).

The question is - will Cain's recent surge translate into success? Will he be the one to do battle against President Barack Obama in 2012?

According to Intrade.com - probably not.

Intrade.com is an online "prediction market" where people bet real money trying to predict the outcome of certain events. For instance, a "President Obama to be re-elected in 2012" contract has a value of between $0 and $10. If Obama isn't re-elected, then the contract is worth zero. If Obama is re-elected, then the contract is worth $10. Contracts are bought and sold based on what people think is the likelihood of the event taking place. If the Obama contract is currently trading at $5.00, then the traders on Intrade believe that there is a 50% chance of Obama being re-elected.

With that being said, let's take a look at where the contracts for Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain are currently trading at, in terms of them winning the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2012:

Mitt Romney - $6.65
Herman Cain - $0.90
Rick Perry - $1.24

So, according to the traders on Intrade.com, Mitt Romney currently has a 66.5% chance of winning the Republican nomination, while Perry (11.24) and Cain (9%) trail far behind.

Perry's contract has tumbled substantially in recent weeks, hitting a high of nearly $4.00 before dropping to its current level of $1.24.

Cain, on the other hand, has seen his contract increase from nearly worthless to its current level of $0.90.

It's still very early yet, but Romney certainly seems to be the favorite for the Republican nomination at this point.

Source: Intrade.com

Source: Gallup.com - Cain Surges, Nearly Ties Romney for Lead in GOP Preferences

Filed under: General Knowledge