Intrade.com - Obama Has 60% Chance of Being Re-Elected

According to online prediction site Intrade.com, President Barack Obama currently has a 59.5% chance of winning his re-election bid in November of 2012.

The "Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012" contract has been fluctuating wildly over the past year.

After Osama Bin Laden was killed in May of last year, the Obama re-election contract soared to around $7.00 per contract (which means that Intrade traders were giving Obama a 70% chance of being re-elected in 2012, as the maximum value of a contract is $10).

The contract slowly lost value through the fall, sinking to around $4.75 in October, as the nation continued to worry about a stagnant economy and troubles in Europe.

Over the past few months, the Obama contract has steadily increased in value, likely due to the fact that the national unemployment rate has been dropping. After being stuck at around 9% for months and months, the unemployment rate has finally started to drop (the January 2012 unemployment rate was 8.3%).

The state of the US economy is going to be THE central issue in the 2012 Presidential election, and Obama seems to have made some strides (at least in the eyes of some voters) over the past few months, thanks to a falling unemployment rate.

Note: Intrade.com is a site where people wager real money on the outcomes of certain events.

Source: Intrade.com

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