Intrade: Mitt Romney Has 80% Chance of Becoming Republican Presidential Nominee

According to online prediction market Intrade.com, Mitt Romney still has a near 80% chance of locking up the Republican Presidential nomination despite Rick Santorum's recent surge.

Intrade.com is a site where people wager real money on the outcome of certain events. A "contract" has a value of between $0 and $10, with $0 meaning that an event certainly will not happen and $10 meaning that an event is a lock to happen. A value of $9, for instance, would mean that an event would have a 90% likelihood of occurring (at least according to the traders on Intrade.com).

Let's look at where the contracts for the leading Republican Presidential nominee candidates are currently trading:

Mitt Romney - $7.97
Rick Santorum - $0.69
Newt Gingrich - $0.39
Ron Paul - $0.31

According to Gallup.com, here are the latest GOP ballot support numbers from Republicans and Republican-leading independents:

Romney - 31%
Santorum - 29%
Gingrich - 15%

Despite the near-deadlock between Romney and Santorum, traders on Intrade.com still believe that Romney is the clear favorite to lock up the nomination.

One of the main reasons for this is likely Romney's durability in the faces of other surges since the start of his campaign. Over the last number of months, Romney has endured surges from Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and now Rick Santorum. Perry, Cain and Gingrich were all unable to maintain their momentum, and clearly there are many who believe that Santorum will end up suffering the same fate.

Can Santorum's recent momentum spill over into the Michigan and Arizona primaries, or will Romney wrest back his momentum as he has done multiple times over the past months?

Source: Intrade.com

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