Odds of Obama Winning Have Slipped in Recent Months

Obama photo next to the Intrade logoAccording to online prediction market Intrade.com, President Barack Obama currently has a 53.5% chance of winning his re-election bid in November.

The good news for Obama supporters is that Obama, at least in the minds of traders on Intrade.com, is currently a small favorite to retain the White House in November.

The bad news? In late April, Obama was listed as a 61% favorite to win in November. The recent uptick in the national unemployment number coincided with a precipitous drop in the "Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012" contract on Intrade. (note: the contract briefly spiked to nearly 70% after Osama Bin Laden was killed last year)

The "Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012" contract, on the other hand, has been steadily marching higher in recent months.

As of this second, Intrade.com traders say that Mitt Romney has a 42.9% chance of winning in November. This is up from around 35% in early May.

Note: Intrade.com is an online prediction market where traders bet real money on the outcome of certain events. The minimum value of a contract is $0, while the maximum value of a contract is $10. If an event has a 61% chance of happening, the corresponding contract would be worth $6.10.


Romney continues to blast away at President Obama on the state of the economy - it will be interesting to see how their contracts react in the weeks and months ahead as the Presidential race kicks into high gear.

Source: Intrade.com

Filed under: General Knowledge

Related Articles