Intrade Traders Believe That Obama Has Big Advantage Over Romney

Intrade - Obama has a 66.3% chance of winning the electionAccording to the traders on, President Barack Obama currently has a 66.5% chance of winning a second term in November., which bills itself as the "world's leading prediction market", allows people to bet real money on the outcome of certain events.

Each "event" is valued with a contract that trades between $0 and $10. If an event has absolutely no chance of happening, the contract will have a value of $0. If the event has a 50% chance of happening, the contract will trade at a value of $5.

If you buy a contract at $5 and the event ends up happening, the contract will then be worth $10. If the event ends up not happening, the contract will be worthless.

The "Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012" currently has a value of $6.65, while the "Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012" contract currently has a value of $3.41. The current pricing of the Mitt Romney contract means that traders believe that he has a 34.1% chance of winning in November.


The Barack Obama contract is currently trading close to its all-time high of around $7.00. The contract spiked to just under $7 following the death of Osama Bin Laden last year.

The lowest that the Barack Obama contract traded was in the $4.70-$4.80 range - it hit these levels in the fall of 2011.

The Mitt Romney contract, on the other hand, hit an all-time high of about $4.40 less than a month ago. Its all-time low was around $0.50, long before Mitt Romney was named as the Republican nominee for President.


According to, President Obama currently enjoys a three point advantage over Mitt Romney (48%-45%).

Filed under: General Knowledge

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