Prediction Site: 21% Chance Tax Reform Passes in 2017

According to a Tweet from President Trump earlier today, an already strong economy and stock market would receive a tremendous boost from the passage of a comprehensive tax reform package.

Even though the markets have done extremely well this year, it is clear that they are not pricing in the strong possibility of Trump's tax reform package becoming law anytime soon. If the markets thought that it was realistic, many people opine, market indexes such as the NASDAQ and DJIA would be much, much higher.

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The fact of the matter is that many people think that Trump's tax reform won't get done in 2017.

Online prediction site Predictit.org, which allows you to buy and sell shares that are tied to the probability of an event taking place, currently believes that there is a 21% chance that Trump is able to sign his tax package into law by the end of the year.

On the other hand, shares of the "No" side are trading at 80 cents per share, meaning that traders on the site believe there is a 80% chance of the "No" side winning (each share has a maximum value of $1.00.

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President Trump and the Republicans are scrambling to sign their tax measures into law, as they need something to take to voters in 2018.

The Republican base is starting to grumble about the lack of progress during President Trump's first year in the White House. Sure, Trump supporters will point to the strong economy/stock market and the progress against ISIS, though Republican supporters voted in President Trump based on his promise to enact health care and tax reform. Repealing Obamacare has proven to be unsuccessful so far, thanks to a number of key Republicans standing opposed.

This leaves tax reform, which is seen as a topic where the Republican Party can form more of a consensus.

Having said that, the markets are pessimistic that President Trump and the Republicans will be able to get it done in 2017.

Source: Predictit.org - Will the individual tax rate be cut by the end of 2017?

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