Tough To Compare Clinton's Impeachment To Trump's Possible Impeachment

What are the odds of Donald Trump being impeached before his first term is over?The odds are increasing (quite literally, as most sports books offer betting on Trump getting impeached) that President Trump will be impeached. With Cohen flipping, Manafort being found guilty and David Pecker of the National Enquirer being granted immunity, there is an ever-increasing likelihood that President Trump will be impeached.

Earlier today, President Trump spoke on the possibility of this happening during an interview with Fox News. Trump said that the economy and stock market would "crash" if he were to be impeached, and many Americans would find themselves to be "very poor" as a result.

President Clinton was impeached by the House of Representatives in December of 1998. Similar to 2018, the stock market was very strong during this time, as the dot-com boom was in full blossom.

While the two situations are quite different, I thought it would be interesting to see how the markets reacted during the time that President Clinton was impeached and subsequently acquitted by the Senate in early 1999.

In the case of President Clinton's impeachment, the markets had a sell the rumor, buy the news type of move.

From mid-July to September 9th of 1998, the S&P 500 fell by 19.4%. This decline took place in anticipation of the release of the Starr Report, which was made available to the general public on September 9th, 1998.

After the report was released, the markets rallied sharply, buoyed by the fact that there was nothing in the report that wasn't already known to the general public.

By the time that President Clinton was impeached, the markets were roaring, and they continued their climb in early 1999.

When President Clinton was acquitted by the Senate in February of 1999, the S&P 500 was making fresh highs and the markets didn't care about the scandal anymore.


The situation with President Trump is quite a bit different. When you consider the possible outcome of the Russian election meddling investigation, you could have a situation where the country is much more destabilized, if President Trump's government is found to be illegitimate. This could obviously have a dramatically negative impact on the markets.

Also, President Trump's tax cuts have significantly buoyed the markets, and the US economy continues to roll along with a great deal of strength. Obviously, President Trump's impeachment could have a sharply negative impact on the markets if his Presidency doesn't survive an impeachment.


The markets hate uncertainty and there is a very good chance of significant weakness if a Trump impeachment continues to look likely.

On the other hand, the markets have shrugged off every piece of bad news over the past 9 years, so why should this be any different?

Filed under: General Knowledge

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