Things Are Looking Dire But Things Can Change

In early March, President Trump looked poised to run away to a re-election in November.

The economy was still strong. The impeachment situation had more or less gone as expected. There were seemingly no really strong Democratic candidates.

Things have changed dramatically since early March, and now President Trump is undoubtedly an underdog to win in November. The betting odds speak to this, as President Trump now has implied odds of just 33% to win re-election.

We don't need to rehash everything that has occurred to turn President Trump from front-runner to underdog.

The question becomes: how does President Trump win re-election in November?

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Coronavirus is raging out of control once again in the United States, with the country posting a record for new cases on July 1st.

The Trump Administration's attempt to change the narrative hasn't worked, as Coronavirus cases continue to soar. Any attempt to look Presidential have gone awry for the President, as he has continued to commit a number of gaffes (claiming that he called for reduced testing of the virus, etc).

President Trump's re-election chances comes down to precisely one thing - the economy.

The blue sky for the Trump Administration is the continued strength of the stock market following March's crash and some strong employment/retail numbers as of late.

If things continue to trend higher, President Trump's chances of re-election will continue to grow, especially as he begins to hit the campaign trail.

In the end, the economy is usually what matters most for people, and if they feel that President Trump will deliver a stronger economy going forward than Joe Biden, people will likely give Trump their vote.

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In addition to the economy, the Trump Administration believes that the upcoming Presidential election will help to score major points against Biden.

The Trump Administration continues to hit at the idea that Biden is not fight to run for President, and that he lacks the mental competence to be an effective leader of the United States.

The Biden campaign, on the other hand, continues to maintain that their candidate is in perfect mental health, and that President Trump is the one with short-comings when it comes to his mental acuity.

The Trump campaign believes that Biden will stumble badly in front of the bright lights of a national audience when the Presidential debates start. Trump will surely be aggressive and look to put the pressure on Biden.

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In my opinion, I don't particularly believe that people will switch votes if Biden stumbles during a debate.

I think that anybody that is currently undecided will wait to see how the economy performs over the next couple of months. These people will ultimately decide the election.

Filed under: General Knowledge