It has been shared online as proof that Europe is about to seize people's savings. The reality is more ordinary, and more interesting. Italy is borrowing from a rule France has had since 2011, Canada has taxed departing residents since 1972, and the United States taxes anyone wealthy enough who gives up citizenship. Below, you can price your own exit bill, compare it with 15 other countries and see exactly what the bill says.
Italy's 2027 budget bill would tax the unrealized investment gains of people who move their tax residence abroad, once their financial assets reach €800,000. Here is what it would cost, who it would catch, and how it compares with the countries that already do this, from France and Germany to Canada and the United States.
Jump to: Your exit bill · 16 countries · What the bill says · Europe · Canada, the US and the rest · What happens next
01Your exit bill
Enter your holdings. The calculator follows a simplified reading of the bill: if your covered assets are worth €800,000 or more in total, the gain on each holding that has risen is taxed at 26%, or at an effective 12.5% for qualifying government bonds. Holdings that have fallen do not reduce the bill, because the bill adds up only the positive differences. Add a row for each holding, or group holdings of the same type that have all risen. The bill values everything on December 31 of the year before you leave, so a move in 2027 would use December 31, 2026 values; today's values work as an estimate. The result prints as a payment slip.
| Holding | Value at the valuation date (€) | What you paid (€) | |
|---|---|---|---|
Assumes the residency answer above, and that leaving ends Italy's right to tax these gains.
That is the proposed exit tax on €600,000 of gains you have not cashed in.
| Line | Illustrative estimate, not an official tax form | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| 01 | Value of covered assets, December 31 before you leave | €1,500,000 |
| 02 | What you paid (tax cost) | €900,000 |
| 03 | Gains on holdings that rose (losses are not subtracted) | €600,000 |
| 04 | Tax at 26% on shares, funds and other securities | €156,000 |
| 05 | Tax on qualifying government bonds (effectively 12.5%) | €0 |
| Proposed exit tax (illustrative) | €156,000 | |
| 06 | Due within 180 days of leaving (the 50% advance, if you defer) | €78,000 |
| 07 | Deferred up to 5 years against a guarantee; never due on holdings still unsold at the end | €78,000 |
Proposed rules, not law. The deferral line depends on where you go: 5 years for EU countries, 10 for countries with tax-information and debt-collection agreements with Italy, none elsewhere. Dollar figure at the European Central Bank rate of $1.1172 to the euro on October 30, 2026. Not tax advice.
The 50% advance is the part that stings. Deferral sounds generous, and the bill does let unsold holdings escape the tax entirely at the end of the period. But to get it, you hand over half the bill in cash within six months of leaving, plus a guarantee for the other half, on gains you have not actually received. Someone whose wealth is mostly in one company's shares may have to sell some of them just to pay a tax on not selling them.
02A similar portfolio, leaving 16 countries
Now take a portfolio of the same size and leave somewhere else. To compare like with like, this chart treats everything as listed shares and funds, using the total value and net gain from the calculator above. It ignores the bond setting, which only Italy treats this way, and Italy's bar counts only holdings that rose, as its bill does. Press the button to watch an illustrative portfolio, with the same mix of gains and losses as yours, grow from €200,000 to €8 million, and see which countries switch on as it crosses their lines: Japan at about €569,000, Italy and France at €800,000, the United States at $2 million (for those giving up citizenship) and Spain only above €4 million.
An all-share illustration: what a long-term resident would owe on leaving with listed shares and funds, at each country's top rate where rates rise with income (Canada at Ontario's top rate). Other countries are shown on the net gain, since their rules on losses vary; Italy counts only holdings that rose. €0 means nothing is due under these assumptions, not under every circumstance. The portfolio is assumed to hold no stake of 1% or more in any company and no single fund bought for €500,000 or more, so Germany and the Netherlands, which tax only those, show €0; the United States taxes only people giving up citizenship or a long-term green card, and the chart models only its $2 million net-worth test, using the portfolio value. Belgium's new tax, which reaches only gains made since January 1, 2026, is left out. Currency thresholds at ECB rates of October 30, 2026. Not tax advice.
Two things jump out. First, Italy is not an outlier: on a portfolio like this, France, Denmark, Austria, Canada and Israel would all take a similar or bigger bite. Second, the line matters more than the rate. Austria and Canada tax a departing resident's gains whatever the size of the portfolio. Italy and France ignore anyone under €800,000, and Spain ignores portfolio investors under €4 million.
03What the bill actually says
The measure is Article 17 of the 2027 budget bill, which the government approved on October 28, 2026 and sent to parliament two days later. It was not mentioned at the press conference that presented the budget; Italian reporters found it in the text. It adds a new article, 307-bis, to Italy's income tax code. Here are the lines that matter, with what they mean.
What it covers. The bill refers to the categories of financial gains in Italy's tax code rather than listing assets, but the government's explanation and Italian coverage agree: shares and other stakes in companies, bonds, funds, derivatives and other financial instruments. Bank deposits are not included, according to Il Sole 24 Ore's reading, and nothing suggests property is. Whether crypto-assets are caught depends on how the bill's cross-reference is read; if they are, Italy's 33% crypto rate would apply rather than 26%.
What it does not answer yet. Which non-EU countries qualify for deferral (the bill names none, so whether Switzerland, the UK or the UAE count is open), what kind of guarantee is acceptable, whether interest is charged on the deferred half, and how it treats wealthy foreigners on Italy's flat-tax regime for new residents, which now costs €300,000 a year. Those details are left to a later decree from the Economy Ministry.
04Six people leave Italy in 2027
Six made-up but ordinary cases, priced under the bill as written.
| Who | Portfolio | Gains counted | Exit tax | Due in 180 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A retiree moving to Portugal | €900,000 | €400,000 | €104,000 | €52,000 |
| A founder moving to Switzerland* | €3,000,000 | €2,600,000 | €676,000 | €338,000 |
| A saver with a loser, moving to Spain | €1,000,000 | €300,000 | €78,000 | €39,000 |
| A bond-heavy saver moving to Spain | €1,200,000 | €200,000 | €35,800 | €17,900 |
| An engineer moving to London | €780,000 | €480,000 | None | – |
| An heir moving to Dubai* | €5,000,000 | €500,000 | €116,500 | €116,500 |
*Assumes Switzerland and the UK would qualify for deferral and the UAE would not; the bill names no countries. The saver with a loser holds two funds: one bought for €300,000 now worth €600,000, and one bought for €700,000 now worth €400,000. The bond-heavy saver holds €720,000 of Italian government bonds bought for €600,000, taxed at an effective 12.5%. The heir's €1 million of bonds is assumed to be Italian government bonds.
The saver with a loser has made no money overall, yet owes €78,000, because the bill counts only the winning fund. The engineer pays nothing at €780,000, even with a bigger gain than the retiree. The heir pays little, because inherited assets start with a fresh cost close to their market value, leaving a small gain. The founder is who this tax is really built for: a large stake bought cheaply, and a choice between paying €338,000 within six months or staying put.
05Europe already does this
The idea is not Italian. Italy has borrowed France's main tests, the €800,000 line and the 6-of-10-years rule, but its deferral is much stricter. Eight other European countries, from France to Poland, already tax some departing individuals' gains, Portugal does it for crypto, and Belgium added one this year. Tap a country for its rules.
From 2027 if passed: 26% on unrealized financial gains once covered assets reach €800,000; 6 of the last 10 years resident; EU moves can defer 5 years with 50% up front.
From 2027 if passed: 26% on unrealized financial gains once covered assets reach €800,000; 6 of the last 10 years resident; EU moves can defer 5 years with 50% up front.
Since 2011: 31.4% (12.8% income tax plus 18.6% social levies, before a 3% to 4% high-income surcharge) on gains once shares and securities reach €800,000, or on a stake of 50% or more; 6 of 10 years resident; EU and EEA moves deferred automatically, and the tax is cancelled after 2 years of holding (5 years above €2.57 million).
Since 2015: 19% to 30% on gains if shares and fund units top €4 million, or a stake above 25% in a company worth over €1 million; 10 of the last 15 years resident; EU moves deferred up to 10 years.
About 28.5% at the top rate on stakes of 1% or more in one company (and, since 2025, a single fund bought for €500,000 or more); 7 of the last 12 years resident; paid in 7 interest-free yearly installments; cancelled if you return within 7 years.
24.5% to 31% on stakes of 5% or more in one company; no residency test; deferred for EU moves but, since 2015, never cancelled: payable whenever you sell or take dividends.
37.84% on share gains above NOK 3 million (about €291,000); since 2024 payable over up to 12 years, and cancelled only if you return within 12.
27% and 42% on shares worth DKK 100,000 (about €13,000) or more; 7 of the last 10 years resident; deferred interest-free until you sell.
27.5% on all private capital assets, crypto included, with no size threshold; EU moves deferred until sale.
New in 2026: 10% on gains accrued since January 1, 2026, above a €10,000 yearly exemption; cancelled if nothing is sold within 2 years.
Since 2019: 19% on gains on shares, fund units and derivatives for people resident 5 of the last 10 years. The PLN 4 million line clearly applies to assets moved abroad; whether it applies to a change of residence is disputed.
No exit tax, but gains on Swedish shares stay taxable in Sweden for 10 years after you leave.
No exit tax. Come back within 5 years, though, and gains made while away can be taxed on your return.
No exit tax: Swiss residents pay no tax on private capital gains to begin with.
No general exit tax; crypto is treated as sold when you leave.
No exit tax; a 2022 proposal was never passed.
Top rate on a departing individual's gains. Unshaded countries are not covered here.
| Country | What is taxed | Threshold | Rate | Resident for | Deferral |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | Shares and securities | €800,000, or a 50% stake | 31.4% plus surcharge | 6 of 10 years | EU: automatic; cancelled after 2 or 5 years |
| Spain | Shares and fund units | Over €4 million, or 25%+ of a company worth over €1 million | 19% to 30% | 10 of 15 years | EU: up to 10 years, then lapses |
| Germany | Stakes of 1%+; large single funds | None by value | About 28.5% | 7 of 12 years | 7 interest-free installments; cancelled on return within 7 years |
| Netherlands | Stakes of 5%+ | None by value | 24.5% to 31% | None | EU: automatic; due on sale or dividends, for life |
| Norway | Shares and share savings accounts | Gains over NOK 3 million | 37.84% | None | Up to 12 years; cancelled on return |
| Denmark | Shares | DKK 100,000 of shares | 27% / 42% | 7 of 10 years | Interest-free until sale |
| Austria | All private capital assets | None | 27.5% | None | EU: until sale |
| Poland | Shares, fund units, derivatives | PLN 4 million (disputed for residence moves) | 19% | 5 of 10 years | None stated |
| Belgium | Financial assets, gains since 2026 | €10,000 a year exempt | 10% | None | Cancelled if no sale within 2 years |
| Italy (proposed) | Shares, bonds, funds, other securities | €800,000 | 26% (bonds 12.5%) | 6 of 10 years | EU: 5 years; others 10; 50% up front |
Two European court rulings shaped all of these. In 2004 the EU Court of Justice struck down France's first exit tax, in the de Lasteyrie du Saillant case, because taxing someone on the day they move to another EU country restricts their freedom to move. In 2019, in Wachtler, it said the same about Germany taxing a move to Switzerland. That is why every EU version, Italy's included, lets people moving within Europe put the bill off. Given that case law, which has treated demands for guarantees as a restriction too, Italy's demand for half the money up front plus a guarantee is likely to be challenged.
06How rich you have to be before leaving costs you
Every country draws its line in a different place. Some have none: in Canada, Austria and Australia, a departing resident with €50,000 of index funds owes tax on the gains just like a millionaire does (Norway and South Africa have none either, though both exempt a slice of gain). Others aim only at the wealthy.
Value of an ordinary portfolio at which the exit tax starts, on a log scale. Norway and South Africa have no value line, but Norway exempts the first NOK 3 million of gain and South Africa a small annual amount. The US line is net worth, and applies only to people giving up citizenship or a long-term green card. Germany, the Netherlands and Spain also have stake-size tests for company owners. Currencies at ECB rates of October 30, 2026.
07How long the taxman waits
Deferral is where these taxes really differ. France wipes the bill out after two years if you simply hold on. Italy would wait five years for EU moves and ten for others, then let unsold shares go. The Netherlands and Denmark never forget: the bill follows you until you sell.
Years from departure for a move within Europe (or, for Canada and Japan, any move). Colored bars end with the tax cancelled, lapsing or paid off; gray bars have no end date. Italy also asks for 50% up front; France, the Netherlands and Spain ask for nothing up front on EU moves.
08Canada, the United States and the rest of the world
Canada has had one for over 50 years, and it is broader than Italy's. When you stop being a Canadian resident, the tax rules treat you as if you sold almost everything you own at market value the day you left: shares, funds, crypto, foreign property. There is no minimum portfolio size. Canadian real estate, RRSPs and pensions are left out because Canada can still tax them later, and TFSAs are excluded too. People who were resident for 60 months or less in the preceding ten years get a break on property they brought with them. Half the gain is taxed at your marginal rate, about 26.8% at the top in Ontario and BC in 2026. You can defer payment until you actually sell, interest-free, by filing Form T1244; Canada asks for security only once the federal tax tops CAD 16,500 (a lower figure applies to former Quebec residents, and provinces can ask for their own). A C$1 million gain leaves a bill of about C$267,600 at Ontario's top rate.
The United States does it differently, because it taxes its citizens wherever they live. Moving abroad changes nothing, so there is no exit tax for moving. There is one for leaving the club: Americans who give up citizenship, and long-term green-card holders who give up residency, are treated as selling everything the day before if their net worth is $2 million or more, their average income tax bill topped $211,000 over the past five years (the 2026 figure), or they cannot certify five years of tax compliance. The first $910,000 of gain is excluded in 2026, and the rest is taxed at up to 23.8%. Individual retirement accounts are treated as cashed out in full. In March 2026, the State Department cut the fee for renouncing citizenship from $2,350 to $450.
Elsewhere, Australia treats departing residents as selling their non-Australian assets but lets them choose to wait until an actual sale; Japan has taxed departing residents with ¥100 million or more in securities since 2015; South Africa treats emigrants as selling their worldwide assets, at up to 18%; and Israel taxes a deemed sale but lets people pay when they actually sell. The United Kingdom, Switzerland, Singapore, the UAE and Hong Kong have no exit tax, and all but the UK also tax little or nothing on private capital gains.
| Country | Since | What is taxed | Rate | Deferral |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Since 1972 | Almost everything: shares, funds, crypto, foreign property | Half the gain at your top rate: about 26.8% in Ontario and BC | Interest-free until sale; security if federal tax tops CAD 16,500 (lower for former Quebec residents) |
| United States | Since 2008 | Worldwide assets, but only for people giving up citizenship or a long-term green card | 23.8% on gains above $910,000 (2026); applies at $2 million net worth, $211,000 average tax, or no 5-year compliance certification | With security; interest charged |
| Australia | CGT event I1 | Assets outside Australian property | About 23.5% at the top rate | Can elect to wait until sale |
| Japan | Since 2015 | Securities worth JPY 100 million (about €569,000) or more | About 15.3% | 5 years, up to 10, with collateral |
| South Africa | Since 2001 | Worldwide assets except South African property | Up to 18% | None |
| Israel | Deemed sale | All assets | 25% (30% for 10%+ holders), plus surtax on large gains | Pay now or at actual sale |
| South Korea | Large shareholders | Big stakes in Korean companies; foreign shares from 2027 | 20% to 25% | Varies |
| No exit tax | United Kingdom, Switzerland, Singapore, UAE, Hong Kong, India, Brazil, Mexico, New Zealand |
Rules as of November 2026. Canadian rates are combined federal and provincial top rates for 2026; US figures are 2026 IRS thresholds.
09Half a century of exit taxes
Exit taxes come in waves. Canada and Germany started in 1972. The United States wrote its current version in 2008. Then a run of newer ones: France in 2011, Spain and Japan in 2015, Poland in 2019, Norway tightening its rules in 2024 after a wave of wealthy Norwegians moved to Switzerland, Belgium in 2026. Italy would be next.
| 1972 | Canada |
| 1972 | Germany |
| 2001 | South Africa |
| 2008 | United States |
| 2011 | France |
| 2015 | Spain |
| 2015 | Japan |
| 2019 | Poland |
| 2024 | Norway tightens its rules |
| 2026 | Belgium |
| 2027 | Italy (proposed) |
The year each country first taxed departing individuals, as dated in this article; Germany and Norway have tightened their rules since.
10Why Italy wants it, and what happens next
It will not raise much money. The government's own estimate is €3.37 million in 2027 and €6.74 million a year from 2028 to 2031, falling back to €3.37 million a year from 2032 once refunds start. For a country that spends over a trillion euros a year, that is nothing. The government expects most people to pay only the 50% advance and defer the rest; if everyone paid in full, its figure would be about €13.5 million a year.
My read: the point is the door, not the money. The government's explanation says it wants to tax financial gains made while living in Italy. In practice, an exit tax works like a lock: it makes leaving expensive for exactly the people most able to leave, at a time when Italy is competing with Switzerland, Monaco, Dubai and Portugal for the same mobile wealth. About 109,000 Italian citizens emigrated in 2025, according to Istat, the national statistics office; nobody publishes how many of them had €800,000 in a brokerage account. The obvious tension is with Italy's own flat-tax regime, which charges wealthy newcomers a fixed €300,000 a year to move to Italy. A rule that taxes them on the way out sends the opposite message, and Italian commentators have already said so.
What happens next. Parliament has until December 31 to pass the budget, and Article 17 can be amended or dropped along the way. If it survives, it applies to anyone whose loss of Italian tax residence takes effect from January 1, 2027. Don't read that as a window to leave in the next eight weeks: Italy sets residence a full year at a time, so anyone who has spent most of 2026 in Italy is already resident for the whole year, and a move now would probably still fall under the rule.
Italy's exit tax is real but not radical. It borrows France's main tests, it lands in the middle of the international range, and it would raise almost nothing. What is unusual is the cash up front: half the bill within six months, on gains nobody has received, even for moves within the EU. Given how the EU's top court has treated guarantee demands before, that part is the most likely to be challenged.
More on DaveManuel.com: the capital gains tax calculator · estate and inheritance tax by state · the US tariff calculator
—Sources
- Italy, bill text: 2027 budget bill, Article 17 (new art. 307-bis), as sent to parliament October 30, 2026, via Certifico; Il Fatto Quotidiano (October 30, 2026)
- Italy, revenue estimate and details: AGI (October 30, 2026); Fanpage (October 31, 2026); IMI Daily (October 31, 2026)
- Il Sole 24 Ore on what the tax covers: Il Sole 24 Ore (October 31, 2026)
- Italian emigration: Istat, demographic indicators 2025 (March 31, 2026)
- France: impots.gouv.fr (updated March 10, 2026). Poland: EY Poland. Germany: section 6 of the Foreign Tax Act. Spain: Devesa. Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland: PwC Worldwide Tax Summaries (2026). Norway: KPMG flash alert 2025-027 (January 31, 2025). Denmark: Danish Tax Agency. Belgium: KPMG flash alert 2026-160 (2026)
- Canada: Canada Revenue Agency; KPMG 2026 top marginal rates
- United States: IRS, expatriation tax; Rev. Proc. 2025-32 (2026 thresholds); PBS NewsHour on the renunciation fee (March 13, 2026)
- Australia: Australian Taxation Office. Japan: National Tax Agency. South Africa: SARS. Israel: PwC
- Exchange rates: European Central Bank reference rates (October 30, 2026)