Who would be the favorite in a Jones vs Lesnar Fight?

In the aftermath of UFC 214: Cormier vs Jones 2, newly crowned Light Heavyweight champion Jon "Bones" Jones took to the microphone to issue a challenge to former Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar.

If Lesnar ever wondered what it would be like to lose to a man 40 pounds lighter than him, Jones said, why not meet Jones in the Octagon?

In the lead-up to UFC 214, Jon Jones was asked about a potential fight against Lesnar. Lesnar heard the words and quickly responded, and the possibility of a fight between the two men seemed to snowball.

The MMA glove punch - Drawing / illustration - Closeup.In terms of "money fights", Lesnar vs Jones is one of the biggest possibilities out there. Lesnar's contract with the WWE finishes in the spring of 2018, which would seemingly set up the possibility for a fight in the summer of 2018. Lesnar needs to re-enter the USADA testing pool for a specific period of time, which means that there is no chance that the two men meet until late 2017, at the very earliest, and this would assume that the WWE would go along with it (though Lesnar might have that worked into his contract).

Jon Jones has stated that he is looking for a big money fight in order to make up for some of his missed paydays. Lesnar, on the other hand, is always looking for big money fights, as he is the very definition of a "prize fighter".

WME-IMG, the current owners of the UFC, have shown a willingness to put on big fights that don't really make sense when it comes to rankings, so the possibility of a Lesnar/Jones showdown seems quite high right now.


Jon "Bones" Jones, despite giving up a tremendous amount of weight to Lesnar, is the clear favorite to win:

Brock Lesnar, 3.80
Jon Jones, 1.29

According to these odds, Lesnar would win the fight roughly 26.32% of the time, while Jones would win over 77% of the time.


There is no question that Jones is the more skilled fighter of the two men. After all, Jones is regarded by most as the top P4P mixed martial artist of all time.

The question becomes - could Lesnar freight train Jones and keep him down long enough to finish him off? Jones has some of the best TDD (Take Down Defence) in all of mixed martial arts, so this would be easier said that done for the former Heavyweight champion.

Jones, on the other hand, would have the clear striking advantage over Lesnar. Lesnar is, at best, an average striker, and Jones would likely light up Lesnar on the feet. Plus, Lesnar has shown a tendency to gas quickly if he can't get the takedown (see the Velasquez fight), while Jones has been in plenty of 5 round fights. On top of that, Jones has shown that he has a very strong chin, as he took some of Cormier's best shots and remained standing - don't forget that Cormier used to fight in the Heavyweight division and possesses Heavyweight power.


All in all, this seems to be a very bad fight on paper for Lesnar, as he seemingly only has one way to win, and that is to take Jones down early and finish him off with ground-and-pound.

If the fight goes any differently, Jones should kill the "Beast Incarnate".

Take Jones @ 1.29 to finish Lesnar.