Midterm Polls and Prediction Markets Tracker

How the poll average works. Polls come from the New York Times poll database, which the Times makes available with credit. For each race I take general-election polls that include both leading candidates, keep each pollster's most recent poll from the last 30 days (60 days when fewer than three pollsters have been in the field), prefer the likely-voter version when a poll reports more than one, leave out campaign internal polls, and average the gap. No pollster weighting and no adjustments.

How the market prices work. Prices come from the public market data of Kalshi and Polymarket and refresh every 10 minutes. Kalshi prices are the midpoint between the best bid and offer when the spread is tight, otherwise the last trade. Polymarket prices are the price Polymarket displays. A price is not a forecast from this site, and thinly traded races can move on small amounts of money.

The Senate count. Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 47, including two independents who caucus with Democrats. 35 seats are on the ballot this year, two of them special elections in Ohio and Florida. Seats not up this year are counted for the party that holds them. The seat bar orders this year's races by the markets' average chance that the Republican wins; independents such as Dan Osborn in Nebraska are counted on the non-Republican side.