Complete Midterm Elections History: Winners, Losers, Patterns
Historical Pattern
90%
President's party loses seats
(18 of 20 times since 1946)
(18 of 20 times since 1946)
Average Losses
-26
House seats since WWII
(-4 Senate seats average)
(-4 Senate seats average)
Biggest Disaster
-116
House seats (1894 Democrats)
Largest single-election swing
Largest single-election swing
Recent Trend
2022
Democrats lost only 9 seats
Best midterm in 20 years
Best midterm in 20 years
Complete Midterm Election Results: 1862-2024
President's Party Performance in All Midterms (1862-2024)
| Year | President | Party | House Change | Senate Change | Result |
|---|
The Iron Law of Midterms
📉 Why Presidents Almost Always Lose
- Referendum Effect: Midterms serve as a referendum on the sitting president's performance and policies
- Turnout Dynamics: Opposition voters are more motivated to vote; president's supporters become complacent
- Buyer's Remorse: Swing voters who supported the president often regret their choice by year 2
- Six-Year Itch: Second-term midterms are particularly brutal (average -37 House seats)
- Coattail Effect in Reverse: Weak down-ballot candidates who won on president's coattails lose when running alone
Average Seat Loss by Presidential Term
The Rare Exceptions: When Presidents Gained Seats
🔵 Only 3 Times Since 1894 (Out of 65 Midterms)
- 1934 - Franklin D. Roosevelt (D): Gained +9 House, +10 Senate seats during Great Depression. New Deal programs were popular. Only time a president gained this many seats in midterm.
- 1998 - Bill Clinton (D): Gained +5 House, 0 Senate seats during his impeachment. Strong economy (60.6% approval rating) and Republican overreach on impeachment drove Democratic turnout.
- 2002 - George W. Bush (R): Gained +8 House, +1 Senate seats after 9/11 attacks. "Rally around the flag" effect gave Bush 90% approval rating. Only midterm gain in president's first term since 1934.
The Three Exceptions vs. Average Midterm
Top 10 Biggest Midterm Disasters
Largest House Seat Losses in Midterm History
| Rank | Year | President | Party | House Seats Lost | Senate Seats Lost | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1894 | Grover Cleveland | DEM | -116 | -4 | Panic of 1893, severe economic depression |
| 2 | 1922 | Warren Harding | REP | -77 | -6 | Post-WWI recession, scandals emerging |
| 3 | 1938 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | DEM | -72 | -7 | Roosevelt recession, court-packing backlash |
| 4 | 2010 | Barack Obama | DEM | -63 | -6 | Tea Party wave, Obamacare backlash |
| 5 | 1914 | Woodrow Wilson | DEM | -61 | +5 | Economic downturn, WWI anxiety |
| 6 | 1910 | William Taft | REP | -57 | -8 | Progressive-conservative split in GOP |
| 7 | 1994 | Bill Clinton | DEM | -54 | -8 | Republican Revolution, Contract with America |
| 8 | 1930 | Herbert Hoover | REP | -52 | -8 | Start of Great Depression |
| 9 | 1974 | Gerald Ford | REP | -48 | -4 | Watergate aftermath, Nixon pardon |
| 10 | 1966 | Lyndon B. Johnson | DEM | -47 | -4 | Vietnam War escalation |
Recent Midterm Elections (2002-2022)
21st Century Midterm Results
🗳️ Modern Midterm Patterns (Last 6 Cycles)
- 2002 (Bush): +8 House, +1 Senate - Post-9/11 rally effect. Only gain in first term since 1934.
- 2006 (Bush): -30 House, -6 Senate - Iraq War unpopularity. Democrats take control of Congress.
- 2010 (Obama): -63 House, -6 Senate - Tea Party wave. Republicans' biggest gain since 1938.
- 2014 (Obama): -13 House, -9 Senate - Six-year itch. Republicans take Senate for first time since 2006.
- 2018 (Trump): -40 House, +2 Senate - Blue wave in House, but favorable Senate map for GOP.
- 2022 (Biden): -9 House, +1 Senate - Smallest loss for president's party in 20 years. "Red wave" failed to materialize.
| Year | President | House Change | Senate Change | House Control | Senate Control | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Biden (D) | -9 | +1 | R 222-213 | D 51-49 | Dobbs decision, Trump candidates underperformed |
| 2018 | Trump (R) | -40 | +2 | D 235-199 | R 53-47 | Blue wave in House, favorable Senate map for GOP |
| 2014 | Obama (D) | -13 | -9 | R 247-188 | R 54-46 | Six-year itch, ACA unpopularity |
| 2010 | Obama (D) | -63 | -6 | R 242-193 | D 53-47 | Tea Party wave, ACA backlash |
| 2006 | Bush (R) | -30 | -6 | D 233-202 | D 51-49 | Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina |
| 2002 | Bush (R) | +8 | +1 | R 229-205 | R 51-48-1 | 9/11 rally effect (90% approval) |
Party Advantages in Midterms
Which Party Has the Edge? Midterm Wins by Party (1862-2024)
📊 Historical Party Performance
- Neither Party Has Structural Advantage: Both parties have won approximately the same number of midterm cycles when controlling the White House
- Democrats as Opposition: 34 midterms (1862-2024) - Won control in 26 cycles (76%)
- Republicans as Opposition: 31 midterms (1862-2024) - Won control in 23 cycles (74%)
- Key Finding: The opposition party has the advantage, regardless of which party it is. The "out" party wins ~75% of midterms.
- Modern Era (1946-2024): Opposition party has gained House seats in 18 of 20 midterms (90%)
House vs. Senate Midterm Patterns
Average Seat Changes: House vs. Senate (1946-2024)
🏛️ Why House and Senate Follow Different Patterns
- House (All 435 Seats): More volatile, reflects national mood immediately. Average loss: -26 seats
- Senate (Only 33-34 Seats): Less predictable due to "map" (which states vote). Average loss: -4 seats
- Class Structure: Senate has 3 classes (Class I, II, III) rotating every 6 years. Outcome depends heavily on which states are voting
- Recent Split Results: 5 times in history where president's party gained Senate seats but lost House seats (1914, 1962, 1970, 2018, 2022)
- 2018 Example: Democrats gained 40 House seats (blue wave) but lost 2 Senate seats (defending 26 of 35 seats in Trump states)
State-Level Midterm Patterns
Top 10 States by Midterm Seat Flips (1946-2024)
| State | House Seats | Total Flips (1946-2024) | Most Volatile Midterm | Recent Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 52 | 127 seat flips | 2010: 8 seats flipped R | Competitive, but trending D |
| New York | 26 | 89 seat flips | 1994: 6 seats flipped R | Suburban seats highly competitive |
| Pennsylvania | 17 | 76 seat flips | 2010: 5 seats flipped R | Perennial battleground |
| Texas | 38 | 71 seat flips | 2018: 2 seats flipped D | Shifting competitive in suburbs |
| Florida | 28 | 68 seat flips | 2010: 4 seats flipped R | Ultimate swing state |
| Ohio | 15 | 64 seat flips | 2010: 5 seats flipped R | Trending R in recent cycles |
| Illinois | 17 | 58 seat flips | 1994: 4 seats flipped R | Competitive suburbs |
| Michigan | 13 | 53 seat flips | 2010: 2 seats flipped R | Battleground state |
| North Carolina | 14 | 49 seat flips | 2010: 3 seats flipped R | Highly competitive |
| Georgia | 14 | 44 seat flips | 1994: 4 seats flipped R | Newly competitive (purple) |
Data Sources & Methodology:
Historical midterm election data compiled from: Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives (official statistics 1920-present), Federal Election Commission (1982-present), Brookings Institution Vital Statistics, MIT Election Lab, Congressional Quarterly historical election returns, American Presidency Project, Library of Congress election statistics, Wikipedia verified election data, and Ballotpedia election tracking.
Seat Change Calculations: Net change represents seats gained/lost by president's party from preceding general election to midterm election. Includes special elections held between cycles. Independent/third-party seats allocated to party with which they caucus.
Time Period: Complete data 1862-2024 (82 midterm cycles). Modern era analysis focuses on post-WWII period (1946-2024, 20 cycles) for consistency.
Historical Context: Pre-1913 Senate elections were conducted by state legislatures (17th Amendment established direct election). Party control calculations account for third parties and independents.
Last Updated: January 2026 | Next midterm: November 2026
Historical midterm election data compiled from: Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives (official statistics 1920-present), Federal Election Commission (1982-present), Brookings Institution Vital Statistics, MIT Election Lab, Congressional Quarterly historical election returns, American Presidency Project, Library of Congress election statistics, Wikipedia verified election data, and Ballotpedia election tracking.
Seat Change Calculations: Net change represents seats gained/lost by president's party from preceding general election to midterm election. Includes special elections held between cycles. Independent/third-party seats allocated to party with which they caucus.
Time Period: Complete data 1862-2024 (82 midterm cycles). Modern era analysis focuses on post-WWII period (1946-2024, 20 cycles) for consistency.
Historical Context: Pre-1913 Senate elections were conducted by state legislatures (17th Amendment established direct election). Party control calculations account for third parties and independents.
Last Updated: January 2026 | Next midterm: November 2026