Complete Midterm Elections History: Winners, Losers, Patterns

01Complete Midterm Election Results: 1862-2022

President's Party Performance in All Midterms (1862-2022)

02The Midterm Penalty

Why Presidents Almost Always Lose

These are the explanations usually given. The seat record below shows the pattern; it does not show which of these causes it, or how much each one matters in a given year.

• Referendum Effect: Midterms serve as a referendum on the sitting president's performance and policies
• Turnout Dynamics: Opposition voters are more motivated to vote; president's supporters become complacent
• Buyer's Remorse: Swing voters who supported the president often regret their choice by year 2
• Six-Year Itch: Second-term midterms have a reputation for being brutal (1958 and 1974 both -48, 2006 -30), but 1986 (-5) and 1998 (+4) break the pattern: the six second-term midterms from 1946 to 2022 averaged -23 House seats, against -27 for the other 14
• Coattail Effect in Reverse: Weak down-ballot candidates who won on president's coattails lose when running alone

Average Seat Loss by Presidential Term

Average House seat change, 1946-2022 (second-term midterms: 1958, 1974, 1986, 1998, 2006, 2014; 1974 counted as Nixon's second term)

03The Rare Exceptions: When Presidents Gained Seats

Only 3 Times in the Last 30 Midterms (1906-2022)

1934	Franklin D. Roosevelt (D): Gained +9 House, +9 Senate seats during Great Depression. New Deal programs were popular. Only time a president gained this many seats in midterm.
1998	Bill Clinton (D): Gained +4 House, 0 Senate seats during his impeachment. Strong economy (66% approval per Gallup) and Republican overreach on impeachment drove Democratic turnout.
2002	George W. Bush (R): Gained +8 House, +2 Senate seats after 9/11 attacks. "Rally around the flag" effect kept Bush's approval above 60% (62% in Gallup's Oct 14-17, 2002 poll, down from a 90% peak after 9/11). Only midterm gain in president's first term since 1934.

The Three Exceptions vs. Average Midterm

House Seats Gained/Lost

04Top 10 Biggest Midterm Disasters

Largest House Seat Losses in Midterm History

Raw seat counts favour the nineteenth century less than they appear to: the House had about 290 seats in the 1870s and 356 in the 1890s, against 435 since 1913. Measured as a share of the chamber, the 1894 loss of 125 seats was about 35% of the House, while 2010's 63 seats was about 14%.

05Recent Midterm Elections (2002-2022)

21st Century Midterm Results

Seats Gained/Lost by the president's party

Modern Midterm Patterns (Last 6 Cycles)

• 2002 (Bush): +8 House, +2 Senate - Post-9/11 rally effect. Only gain in first term since 1934.
• 2006 (Bush): -30 House, -6 Senate - Iraq War unpopularity. Democrats take control of Congress.
• 2010 (Obama): -63 House, -6 Senate - Tea Party wave. Republicans' biggest gain since 1938.
• 2014 (Obama): -13 House, -9 Senate - Six-year itch. Republicans take Senate for first time since 2006.
• 2018 (Trump): -41 House, +2 Senate - Blue wave in House, but favorable Senate map for GOP.
• 2022 (Biden): -9 House, +1 Senate - Smallest loss for president's party in 20 years. "Red wave" failed to materialize.
• 2026 (Trump, upcoming): Election day is November 3, 2026. Going in, Republicans held the House 218-214, with one independent and two vacant seats, and the Senate 53-47 (Democratic total includes two independents), as of October 12, 2026. 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, including special elections in Ohio and Florida. Results will be added here once seat changes are called.

06Party Advantages in Midterms

07House vs. Senate Midterm Patterns

Average Seat Changes: House vs. Senate (1946-2022)

Average Seats Lost by President's Party

Why House and Senate Follow Different Patterns

• House (All 435 Seats): More volatile, reflects national mood immediately. Average loss: -26 seats
• Senate (Only 33-34 Regular Seats, Plus Any Specials): Less predictable due to "map" (which states vote). Average loss: -4 seats
• Class Structure: Senate has 3 classes (Class I, II, III) rotating every 6 years. Outcome depends heavily on which states are voting
• Split Results: 6 times since direct Senate elections began in 1914, the president's party gained Senate seats but lost House seats (1914, 1962, 1970, 1982, 2018, 2022)
• 2018 Example: Democrats gained 41 House seats (blue wave) but lost 2 Senate seats (defending 26 of the 35 seats up, 10 of them in states Trump won in 2016)

08Data Sources & Methodology

Data Sources & Methodology: House and Senate seat changes for 1934-2022 are taken from the American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) series "Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections", which uses the party divisions reported immediately after each election by the House Office of the Historian and the Senate Historical Office. That series begins in 1934. For 1862-1930 the change is computed from the same two offices' official party-division tables (House, Senate) as the change in the president's party's seat count from the opening of one Congress to the opening of the next. Background context draws on the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives and Library of Congress election statistics.

Seat Change Calculations: Net change is the president's party's seat count after the midterm minus its count after the preceding election. In the American Presidency Project rows (1934-2022), Independents and Progressives are counted with the major party they caucused with; in the 1862-1930 rows only seats held under the Democratic or Republican label are counted, so third-party seats (Populists, Silver, Unionists and others) are left out. Counts taken on a different date, for example after later special elections, can differ by a seat or two. The 1866 midterm is not scored: Andrew Johnson had been elected on the National Union ticket and had broken with the Republican majority in Congress, so there is no clear president's party for that election.

Time Period: 1862-2022 (40 midterm cycles, 1866 not scored). Modern era analysis focuses on post-WWII period (1946-2022, 20 cycles) for consistency.

Historical Context: Pre-1913 Senate elections were conducted by state legislatures (17th Amendment established direct election).

Last Updated: October 24, 2026 | Next midterm: November 3, 2026