Recession Dashboard

Yield curve: 10-year minus 3-month Treasury · Watch, 0.78 pts (Oct 23, 2026)

Flashing when the spread is below zero (inverted). On watch for 18 months after an inversion of three months or more ends: since the late 1960s, recessions have begun either while the curve was still inverted or within about a year of it turning positive again. Last inverted for 3 months or more until August 2025.

When short-term Treasury rates rise above long-term ones, bond investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates, usually because the economy is weakening. The 10-year minus 3-month spread is the version the Federal Reserve Bank of New York uses in its recession model. Inversions of three months or more in the data: Jun 1989 to Aug 1989 (next recession: peak Jul 1990); Jul 2000 to Jan 2001 (next recession: peak Mar 2001); Aug 2006 to May 2007 (next recession: peak Dec 2007); May 2019 to Sep 2019 (next recession: peak Feb 2020); Nov 2022 to Nov 2024 (no recession as of Oct 2026); Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 (no recession as of Oct 2026).

Yield curve: 10-year minus 2-year Treasury · Clear, 0.31 pts (Oct 23, 2026)

Flashing when the spread is below zero (inverted). On watch for 18 months after an inversion of three months or more ends: since the late 1960s, recessions have begun either while the curve was still inverted or within about a year of it turning positive again. Last inverted for 3 months or more until August 2024.

Sahm rule recession indicator · Clear, 0.00 pts (September 2026)

Flashing at 0.50 or above: the three-month average unemployment rate is half a point or more above its lowest three-month average of the previous 12 months. On watch from 0.30.

Named for economist Claudia Sahm, who proposed it in 2019 as a trigger for automatic stimulus. It looks at the unemployment rate, the most widely followed sign of a weakening job market. The version used here is FRED's real-time series, which uses the unemployment data as it was available at the time, not as later revised.

Initial jobless claims, 4-week average, rise from its 52-week low · Clear, −0.3% (Oct 17, 2026)

Flashing when the four-week average of new claims is 20% or more above its lowest point of the previous year; on watch from 10%. Latest four-week average: 197,750.

New claims for unemployment insurance, published weekly (usually on Thursday), are the most up-to-date measure of layoffs. A sustained rise from the low is an early sign that employers are cutting.

Payroll jobs, 3-month average monthly change · Clear, +51k (September 2026)

Flashing when the economy loses jobs on a three-month average; on watch below 50,000 a month. Figures in thousands of jobs.

Real GDP growth, annualized, latest quarter · Clear, 2.2% (Q2 2026)

Flashing when the economy shrank in the latest quarter (two shrinking quarters in a row is the popular definition of a recession, though not the official one); on watch below 1%. The quarter before: 2.5%.

Industrial production, change from a year earlier · Clear, 2.2% (September 2026)

Flashing when factory, mining and utility output is down 2% or more from a year earlier; on watch when it is down at all.

Building permits, 3-month average, change from a year earlier · Clear, 1.1% (September 2026)

Flashing when permits for new homes are down 20% or more from a year earlier (three-month average); on watch from 10%.

Temporary help jobs, change from a year earlier · Clear, 0.6% (September 2026)

Flashing when temporary staffing jobs, often the first cut, are down 5% or more from a year earlier; on watch when they are down at all.

Real personal income excluding government transfers, change from a year earlier · Watch, 0.8% (August 2026)

Flashing when income from work and investments, after inflation, is no higher than a year earlier; on watch below 1% growth. One of the measures the NBER uses to date recessions.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, which dates U.S. recessions, has in recent decades put the most weight on payroll jobs and real personal income excluding transfers, alongside spending, sales and industrial production.

Real retail sales, 3-month average, change from a year earlier · Clear, 2.1% (September 2026)

Flashing when retail and food service sales, after inflation, are down 2% or more from a year earlier; on watch when they are down at all.