How the Stock Market Does in December
Every December since 1928 for the Dow, since 1950 for the S&P 500 and since 1971 for the Nasdaq: how often the month rises, the Santa Claus rally, the two halves of the month and the best and worst Decembers on record, from the site's own daily closes.
01Every December Since 1928
December has been one of the most reliable months for U.S. stocks. The Dow has finished December higher in 70 of 98 years, a hit rate of 71%, with a median change of +1.69%. The chart shows each year; switch indexes to compare. The record is strong but not a promise: December 2018 took 8.7% off the Dow, its worst December since 1931.
Change from the last close of November to the last close of December. Price change only; dividends not included.
All Three Indexes Over the Same Years, 1971 to 2025
| Index | Decembers | Up | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 55 | 38 (69%) | +1.36% | +1.43% |
| S&P 500 | 55 | 39 (71%) | +1.28% | +1.26% |
| Nasdaq | 55 | 33 (60%) | +1.49% | +0.58% |
The Nasdaq Composite starts in 1971, so this is the longest period all three share.
02How December Compares With the Other Months
By average change, December ranks No. 3 of the 12 months for the Dow; by how often the index rises, it ranks No. 1. For the S&P 500 since 1950 the ranks are No. 3 and No. 1.
| Month | Dow average | Dow up | S&P 500 average | S&P 500 up | Nasdaq average | Nasdaq up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.03% | 63 of 98 | +1.08% | 46 of 76 | +2.47% | 37 of 55 |
| February | +0.06% | 56 of 98 | −0.04% | 41 of 77 | +0.40% | 28 of 55 |
| March | +0.28% | 59 of 98 | +0.96% | 49 of 77 | +0.56% | 35 of 56 |
| April | +1.43% | 61 of 98 | +1.54% | 54 of 77 | +1.58% | 37 of 56 |
| May | −0.15% | 55 of 98 | +0.44% | 48 of 77 | +1.38% | 35 of 56 |
| June | +0.59% | 51 of 98 | +0.19% | 42 of 77 | +1.02% | 32 of 56 |
| July | +1.58% | 65 of 98 | +1.29% | 46 of 77 | +0.85% | 32 of 56 |
| August | +0.60% | 58 of 98 | +0.07% | 43 of 77 | +0.40% | 32 of 56 |
| September | −1.26% | 40 of 98 | −0.62% | 34 of 77 | −0.72% | 30 of 56 |
| October | +0.38% | 59 of 98 | +0.87% | 45 of 77 | +0.66% | 30 of 56 |
| November | +1.24% | 63 of 98 | +1.86% | 53 of 76 | +2.06% | 39 of 55 |
| December | +1.30% | 70 of 98 | +1.41% | 55 of 76 | +1.49% | 33 of 55 |
Completed months only. Dow from 1928, S&P 500 from 1950, Nasdaq from 1971. Closing prices for any date are in the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq lookup.
03The Santa Claus Rally
Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Trader's Almanac, defined the Santa Claus rally in 1972 as the last five trading days of December plus the first two of January. Over those seven sessions the S&P 500 has gained an average of +1.25% and risen 58 times out of 76. Hirsch's saying goes, "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." In the record here, the S&P 500 rose the following year 12 times out of 17 after a failed rally (average +6.7%), and 43 times out of 58 after a successful one (average +10.2%). With so few failures, that gap can be luck.
| Years the rally failed (S&P 500) | Rally | Next year |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | −0.11% | not yet known |
| 2024-25 | −0.53% | +16.4% |
| 2023-24 | −0.88% | +23.3% |
| 2015-16 | −2.30% | +9.5% |
| 2014-15 | −2.96% | −0.7% |
| 2007-08 | −2.51% | −38.5% |
| 2004-05 | −1.82% | +3.0% |
| 1999-00 | −4.04% | −10.1% |
| 1993-94 | −0.10% | −1.5% |
| 1992-93 | −1.07% | +7.1% |
| 1990-91 | −2.97% | +26.3% |
| 1984-85 | −0.57% | +26.3% |
| 1981-82 | −1.85% | +14.8% |
| 1979-80 | −2.20% | +25.8% |
| 1977-78 | −0.30% | +1.1% |
| 1968-69 | −1.16% | −11.4% |
| 1966-67 | −1.40% | +20.1% |
| 1955-56 | −0.90% | +2.6% |
Rally: from the close before the last five trading days of December to the close of the second trading day of January. Next year: the change from that December's close to the following December's close.
04The Two Halves of December
Much of December's gain has come late in the month. From the end of November to the 15th, the Dow has averaged +0.12% and risen 60 times out of 98; from the 15th to the last trading day it has averaged +1.19% and risen 66 times. The line shows the average path through the month, trading day by trading day.
December has 19 to 22 trading days depending on the calendar. Each point averages only the Decembers that reached that trading day, so the last points rest on fewer years; points reached by fewer than 60% of Decembers are left off. Hover to see how many years each point uses. Because of this, the line's last point is not the average full-month return; that figure is in the table in section 02.
05The Best and Worst Decembers
Best
| December | Dow | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 | +9.47% | +11.16% |
| 1971 | +7.08% | +8.62% |
| 1932 | +6.94% | - |
| 2003 | +6.86% | +5.08% |
| 1976 | +6.06% | +5.25% |
| 1987 | +5.74% | +7.29% |
| 1999 | +5.69% | +5.78% |
| 1970 | +5.65% | +5.68% |
| 1956 | +5.65% | +3.53% |
| 2021 | +5.38% | +4.36% |
Worst
| December | Dow | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1931 | −17.01% | - |
| 1930 | −9.03% | - |
| 2018 | −8.66% | −9.18% |
| 2002 | −6.23% | −6.03% |
| 2024 | −5.27% | −2.50% |
| 1968 | −4.20% | −4.16% |
| 2022 | −4.17% | −5.90% |
| 1941 | −3.23% | - |
| 1957 | −3.15% | −4.15% |
| 1980 | −2.95% | −3.39% |
06December and the Election Cycle
The midterm-year December, the one that comes right after the election, has averaged +0.67% for the Dow, No. 4 of the four years of the presidential term. What has followed midterms over the next year is covered in how the stock market does after midterm elections.
| Year of the presidential term | Decembers | Dow average | Dow up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year after a presidential election | 25 | +1.12% | 18 of 25 |
| Midterm year | 24 | +0.67% | 16 of 24 |
| Year before a presidential election | 24 | +1.92% | 19 of 24 |
| Presidential election year | 25 | +1.48% | 17 of 25 |
07Every December, Year by Year
| Year | Dow | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Dow, 1st half | Dow, 2nd half |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.73% | −0.05% | −0.53% | +1.47% | −0.73% |
| 2024 | −5.27% | −2.50% | +0.48% | −2.41% | −2.93% |
| 2023 | +4.84% | +4.42% | +5.52% | +3.77% | +1.03% |
| 2022 | −4.17% | −5.90% | −8.73% | −4.01% | −0.17% |
| 2021 | +5.38% | +4.36% | +0.69% | +4.19% | +1.14% |
| 2020 | +3.27% | +3.71% | +5.65% | +1.89% | +1.35% |
| 2019 | +1.74% | +2.86% | +3.54% | +0.30% | +1.43% |
| 2018 | −8.66% | −9.18% | −9.48% | −5.63% | −3.21% |
| 2017 | +1.84% | +0.98% | +0.43% | +1.56% | +0.27% |
| 2016 | +3.34% | +1.82% | +1.12% | +3.81% | −0.45% |
| 2015 | −1.66% | −1.75% | −1.98% | −1.10% | −0.57% |
| 2014 | −0.03% | −0.42% | −1.16% | −3.63% | +3.74% |
| 2013 | +3.05% | +2.36% | +2.87% | −2.06% | +5.21% |
| 2012 | +0.60% | +0.71% | +0.31% | +0.84% | −0.24% |
| 2011 | +1.43% | +0.85% | −0.58% | −1.47% | +2.94% |
| 2010 | +5.19% | +6.53% | +6.19% | +4.10% | +1.05% |
| 2009 | +0.80% | +1.78% | +5.81% | +1.04% | −0.23% |
| 2008 | −0.60% | +0.78% | +2.70% | −3.00% | +2.47% |
| 2007 | −0.80% | −0.86% | −0.33% | −0.24% | −0.56% |
| 2006 | +1.97% | +1.26% | −0.68% | +1.83% | +0.14% |
| 2005 | −0.82% | −0.10% | −1.23% | +0.70% | −1.51% |
| 2004 | +3.40% | +3.25% | +3.75% | +2.53% | +0.86% |
| 2003 | +6.86% | +5.08% | +2.20% | +2.46% | +4.30% |
| 2002 | −6.23% | −6.03% | −9.69% | −5.20% | −1.09% |
| 2001 | +1.73% | +0.76% | +1.03% | −0.41% | +2.14% |
| 2000 | +3.59% | +0.41% | −4.90% | +0.20% | +3.38% |
| 1999 | +5.69% | +5.78% | +21.98% | +3.19% | +2.42% |
| 1998 | +0.71% | +5.64% | +12.47% | −3.22% | +4.06% |
| 1997 | +1.09% | +1.57% | −1.89% | +1.27% | −0.18% |
| 1996 | −1.13% | −2.15% | −0.12% | −3.32% | +2.27% |
| 1995 | +0.84% | +1.74% | −0.67% | +2.01% | −1.15% |
| 1994 | +2.55% | +1.23% | +0.22% | +0.70% | +1.83% |
| 1993 | +1.90% | +1.01% | +2.97% | +0.89% | +1.00% |
| 1992 | −0.12% | +1.01% | +3.71% | −0.63% | +0.51% |
| 1991 | +9.47% | +11.16% | +11.92% | +0.68% | +8.73% |
| 1990 | +2.89% | +2.48% | +4.09% | +1.33% | +1.54% |
| 1989 | +1.73% | +2.14% | −0.29% | +1.23% | +0.50% |
| 1988 | +2.56% | +1.47% | +2.66% | +0.87% | +1.67% |
| 1987 | +5.74% | +7.29% | +8.29% | +5.89% | −0.14% |
| 1986 | −0.95% | −2.83% | −3.00% | +0.45% | −1.40% |
| 1985 | +5.06% | +4.51% | +3.47% | +4.28% | +0.75% |
| 1984 | +1.90% | +2.24% | +1.94% | −1.10% | +3.03% |
| 1983 | −1.36% | −0.88% | −2.47% | −3.07% | +1.77% |
| 1982 | +0.70% | +1.52% | +0.04% | −4.49% | +5.43% |
| 1981 | −1.57% | −3.01% | −2.75% | −1.47% | −0.11% |
| 1980 | −2.95% | −3.39% | −2.79% | −8.23% | +5.75% |
| 1979 | +1.99% | +1.68% | +4.77% | +2.48% | −0.48% |
| 1978 | +0.75% | +1.49% | +2.87% | +0.79% | −0.04% |
| 1977 | +0.18% | +0.28% | +1.84% | −1.42% | +1.62% |
| 1976 | +6.06% | +5.25% | +7.42% | +3.86% | +2.12% |
| 1975 | −0.96% | −1.15% | −1.50% | −2.80% | +1.89% |
| 1974 | −0.39% | −2.02% | −4.97% | −4.18% | +3.96% |
| 1973 | +3.48% | +1.66% | −1.41% | −0.80% | +4.32% |
| 1972 | +0.18% | +1.18% | +0.58% | +0.89% | −0.70% |
| 1971 | +7.08% | +8.62% | +9.76% | +3.90% | +3.06% |
| 1970 | +5.65% | +5.68% | - | +3.22% | +2.35% |
| 1969 | −1.47% | −1.87% | - | −3.48% | +2.08% |
| 1968 | −4.20% | −4.16% | - | −0.38% | −3.83% |
| 1967 | +3.35% | +2.63% | - | +0.55% | +2.78% |
| 1966 | −0.75% | −0.15% | - | +2.22% | −2.90% |
| 1965 | +2.38% | +0.90% | - | +1.27% | +1.10% |
| 1964 | −0.15% | +0.39% | - | −2.05% | +1.95% |
| 1963 | +1.66% | +2.44% | - | +1.29% | +0.37% |
| 1962 | +0.43% | +1.35% | - | −0.19% | +0.62% |
| 1961 | +1.32% | +0.32% | - | +1.08% | +0.24% |
| 1960 | +3.13% | +4.63% | - | +2.27% | +0.84% |
| 1959 | +3.06% | +2.76% | - | +2.21% | +0.83% |
| 1958 | +4.70% | +5.20% | - | +1.17% | +3.49% |
| 1957 | −3.15% | −4.15% | - | −2.09% | −1.09% |
| 1956 | +5.65% | +3.53% | - | +4.08% | +1.50% |
| 1955 | +1.06% | −0.07% | - | −0.53% | +1.60% |
| 1954 | +4.56% | +5.08% | - | +0.56% | +3.98% |
| 1953 | −0.17% | +0.20% | - | −0.66% | +0.49% |
| 1952 | +2.90% | +3.55% | - | +0.82% | +2.07% |
| 1951 | +3.05% | +3.89% | - | +1.70% | +1.32% |
| 1950 | +3.44% | +4.72% | - | −1.27% | +4.77% |
| 1949 | +4.68% | - | - | +3.39% | +1.25% |
| 1948 | +3.56% | - | - | +2.92% | +0.62% |
| 1947 | +0.92% | - | - | +0.10% | +0.82% |
| 1946 | +4.37% | - | - | +2.43% | +1.90% |
| 1945 | +0.76% | - | - | +0.98% | −0.22% |
| 1944 | +3.12% | - | - | +3.36% | −0.23% |
| 1943 | +4.88% | - | - | +3.56% | +1.27% |
| 1942 | +4.28% | - | - | +1.58% | +2.66% |
| 1941 | −3.23% | - | - | −3.06% | −0.17% |
| 1940 | +0.85% | - | - | +1.78% | −0.92% |
| 1939 | +2.95% | - | - | +2.71% | +0.23% |
| 1938 | +3.03% | - | - | +1.33% | +1.67% |
| 1937 | −2.13% | - | - | +0.57% | −2.69% |
| 1936 | −1.81% | - | - | −0.68% | −1.14% |
| 1935 | +1.26% | - | - | −1.53% | +2.83% |
| 1934 | +1.07% | - | - | −2.19% | +3.33% |
| 1933 | +0.54% | - | - | +1.84% | −1.28% |
| 1932 | +6.94% | - | - | +8.54% | −1.47% |
| 1931 | −17.01% | - | - | −16.27% | −0.89% |
| 1930 | −9.03% | - | - | −9.71% | +0.76% |
| 1929 | +3.99% | - | - | +4.46% | −0.45% |
| 1928 | +2.26% | - | - | −7.20% | +10.19% |
First half: last close of November to the last close on or before Dec. 15. Second half: from there to the last close of December. The S&P 500 before March 1957 is its 90-stock predecessor.
08How This Page Works
Every figure is calculated from the daily closing prices behind the site's Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq lookup, which update each trading day, so the page adds each new December as it happens. A December in progress is shown as "so far" and is left out of every average, count and ranking until the month is over; the same goes for a Santa Claus rally that has not finished. Returns are price changes only, without dividends. Patterns in past Decembers say nothing certain about the next one.
Data through Nov 9, 2026.
09Frequently Asked Questions
Is December a good month for stocks?
Historically, yes. Since 1928 the Dow has risen in 70 of 98 Decembers, with an average gain of +1.30%, and the S&P 500 has risen in 55 of 76 since 1950. Past patterns are not a forecast, and some Decembers have been among the worst months on record.
What is the Santa Claus rally?
The term, coined by Yale Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac in 1972, refers to the last five trading days of December and the first two of January. Measured that way, the S&P 500 has gained an average of +1.25% over those seven sessions and risen 58 times out of 76.
Is the second half of December stronger than the first?
On average it has been: since 1928 the Dow has averaged +0.12% from the end of November to the 15th and +1.19% from the 15th to the end of December, rising in 66 of 98 second halves.
What was the worst December for stocks?
For the Dow, December 1931, with a change of −17.0%.
Related: The stock market under every president · Biggest stock market crashes and gains · $10,000 invested in 1980
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This page is free to cite and link. Its figures come from DaveManuel.com calculations from daily closes of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite and are kept current, so please include the date you accessed it.
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Source data: DaveManuel.com calculations from daily closes of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Updates: Every trading day. How we build our data pages.