Of the 16 completed presidencies since 1929, the Dow ended lower under only three. Democrats have the better average, but the typical term under each party looks much the same, and the best combination of all has been a Democratic president working with a Republican Congress.
Price change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the last close before each inauguration, through Nov. 9, 2026. Dividends are not included. The charts update from the site's daily closes; how everything was calculated is in section 07.
01Every President, Ranked
Measured by the Dow's average yearly gain, Bill Clinton's eight years top the list at 15.9% a year, as the index more than tripled from 3,255.99 to 10,587.59. Herbert Hoover is at the bottom by a distance. He took office seven months before the crash of October 1929, and by the time he left in March 1933 the Dow had lost 83% of its value.
Only two other presidents left office with the Dow lower than they found it: Richard Nixon (−16.1%) and George W. Bush (−21.8%). Bush's eight years began as the dot-com bubble was deflating and ended in the middle of the 2008 financial crisis, and the S&P 500 fell 36.7% over his two terms, the worst of any president in the S&P 500 figures here, which start in 1950. The Nasdaq, which leans heavily on technology stocks, tells a slightly different story: its best stretch was Donald Trump's first term, at 24.2% a year.
The index matters more than you might think. Under Jimmy Carter the Dow went nowhere, up 0.2% over four years, while the broader S&P 500 rose 29% and the Nasdaq more than doubled. Inflation matters too. Prices rose so fast in the late 1970s that, adjusted for inflation, the Dow lost 32% of its value under Carter, and under Nixon 40%. Use the buttons to switch between the indexes, between price change and returns after inflation, and between yearly averages and the total over each term.
Price change from the last close before each inauguration to the last close before the next one, through Nov. 9, 2026. The S&P 500 starts with Eisenhower and the Nasdaq with Ford.
| President | In office | Dow, a year | S&P 500, a year | Nasdaq, a year | Dow, whole term | Dow, real, a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herbert Hoover (R) | 1929-33 | −35.97% | - | - | −83.2% | −31.74% |
| Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) | 1933-45 | +9.32% | - | - | +194.4% | +6.62% |
| Harry Truman (D) | 1945-53 | +7.94% | - | - | +81.1% | +2.58% |
| Dwight Eisenhower (R) | 1953-61 | +10.38% | +10.96% | - | +120.4% | +8.85% |
| John F. Kennedy (D) | 1961-63 | +4.24% | +5.51% | - | +12.5% | +3.04% |
| Lyndon Johnson (D) | 1963-69 | +5.45% | +7.70% | - | +31.5% | +2.37% |
| Richard Nixon (R) | 1969-74 | −3.11% | −3.95% | - | −16.1% | −8.67% |
| Gerald Ford (R) | 1974-77 | +8.96% | +10.36% | +14.07% | +23.4% | +1.69% |
| Jimmy Carter (D) | 1977-81 | +0.06% | +6.65% | +19.90% | +0.2% | −9.25% |
| Ronald Reagan (R) | 1981-89 | +11.01% | +9.95% | +8.64% | +130.6% | +6.49% |
| George H.W. Bush (R) | 1989-93 | +9.81% | +10.97% | +15.53% | +45.4% | +5.49% |
| Bill Clinton (D) | 1993-2001 | +15.88% | +15.12% | +18.83% | +225.2% | +12.96% |
| George W. Bush (R) | 2001-09 | −3.03% | −5.56% | −7.16% | −21.8% | −5.49% |
| Barack Obama (D) | 2009-17 | +11.45% | +13.01% | +17.44% | +138.3% | +9.76% |
| Donald Trump (R) | 2017-21 | +11.89% | +13.82% | +24.23% | +56.7% | +9.42% |
| Joe Biden (D) | 2021-25 | +8.90% | +12.11% | +10.45% | +40.6% | +4.08% |
| Donald Trump (R) (so far) | 2025- | +10.84% | +13.57% | +14.93% | +20.5% | +7.39% |
D for Democrat, R for Republican. A year means the compound annual rate over the term; real means after inflation. Through Nov. 9, 2026 for the current term; the S&P 500 figures before March 1957 are for its 90-stock predecessor. A dash means the index did not exist for the whole term.
02The Race From Inauguration Day
Whole-term averages flatter presidents who caught a good few years and punish those who caught a bad one, and they cannot fairly compare a two-year term with an eight-year one. This chart lines every term up from its starting line instead: $10,000 put into the index at the last close before each inauguration, and what it was worth each day after. Press play to watch the race, drag the slider to stop at any point, and tap a name to pick out its line.
Gray figures: the term ended before that point, or the current term has not reached it yet.
Price change only. On the log scale, equal distances mean equal percentage changes, which keeps the 1930s readable. Blue lines are Democratic presidents, red Republican.
The first year is where luck shows most. The best first year on the Dow belongs to Franklin Roosevelt, whose first twelve months, starting with the bank holiday of March 1933, saw the Dow rise 96%. Barack Obama's first year ended up 30%, even though the Dow first fell another 21%, to its low of 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009, seven weeks after he took office. The worst first years were Jimmy Carter's (−20%), Richard Nixon's (−17%) and Herbert Hoover's (−16%).
Donald Trump's second term is still in progress, and the chart and the leaderboard show where it stands against every earlier term at the same point in office, updated with each day's close. Early standings say little about how a term ends; plenty of presidents who started strongly finished badly, and the other way around.
03Control of Congress
The president does not set tax rates or spending on his own. Congress writes the budget and the tax code, and the old Wall Street saying is that markets like gridlock, a government split between the parties that cannot do much. To test that, I gave every trading day since 1929 to whoever held the White House, the House and the Senate on that day, and added up how the market did under each combination.
Since 1953, the first presidency fully covered by the S&P 500 figures here, the best combination has been a Democratic president with a Republican Congress: the Dow gained 15.2% a year in those 8 years. The worst has been the reverse, a Republican president facing a Democratic Congress, at 2.7% a year over 22 years. Governments where one party ran everything did slightly better than divided ones, 7.8% a year against 7.0% on the Dow and 8.7% against 7.6% on the S&P 500. Since 1929 the two come out about even on the Dow, 5.2% against 5.5%. That is not much support for the gridlock theory.
Both extremes rest on one stretch each. The Democratic-president, Republican-Congress years are mostly Bill Clinton's last six, from 1995 to 2001, when the Dow rose 178% during the dot-com boom; leave them out and the remaining 2 years, mostly Barack Obama's last two, averaged about 6.3% a year. The Republican-president, Democratic-Congress years include the 1973-74 bear market under Nixon and the 2008 crash under George W. Bush; leave out 2007 to 2009 and that combination averaged about 5.1% a year.
Looking at Congress alone, the market has done much better since 1953 when Republicans held both chambers (13.3% a year) than when Democrats did (4.0%), with split Congresses in between (9.2%). That is close to a mirror image of the result for presidents, and the reason is mostly the calendar. Democrats held both chambers for 26 straight years from 1955 to 1981, a run that took in the bear markets and inflation of the 1970s, while most of the Republican Congresses came in the strong markets of 1995 to 2007 and the years after 2015. Start the count in 1929 instead and the order flips, 5.8% a year for Democratic Congresses against 4.2% for Republican ones, because Republicans controlled Congress during the crash.
| Who was in charge | Years | Stretches | A year | $10K became |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic president, Democratic Congress | 17.8 | 5 | +5.57% | $26,213 |
| Democratic president, split Congress | 6.1 | 4 | +11.60% | $19,555 |
| Democratic president, Republican Congress | 8.1 | 3 | +15.23% | $31,516 |
| Republican president, Republican Congress | 10.1 | 5 | +11.78% | $30,698 |
| Republican president, split Congress | 9.6 | 3 | +7.65% | $20,254 |
| Republican president, Democratic Congress | 22.2 | 4 | +2.73% | $18,176 |
$10,000 invested only while each group was in charge
Dow, Jan. 19, 1953 to Nov. 9, 2026. Price change only; dividends not included.
Each trading day's change counts toward whoever held the White House and both chambers that day. The lines assume the money sat in cash, earning nothing, at all other times. Split Congress means each party controlled one chamber. A Senate tied 50-50 counts for the vice president's party.
Every stretch of party control since 1929
| Years | President | House | Senate | Dow, total | Dow, a year | S&P 500, a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1929-31 | Hoover (R) | Republicans | Republicans | −73.0% | −37.8% | - |
| 1931-33 | Hoover (R) | Democrats | Republicans | −37.9% | −31.8% | - |
| 1933-45 | F. Roosevelt (D) | Democrats | Democrats | +194.4% | +9.3% | - |
| 1945-47 | Truman (D) | Democrats | Democrats | +11.3% | +6.4% | - |
| 1947-49 | Truman (D) | Republicans | Republicans | +0.5% | +0.3% | - |
| 1949-53 | Truman (D) | Democrats | Democrats | +64.8% | +13.3% | - |
| 1953-55 | Eisenhower (R) | Republicans | Republicans | +40.9% | +19.3% | +18.1% |
| 1955-61 | Eisenhower (R) | Democrats | Democrats | +56.4% | +7.7% | +8.7% |
| 1961-63 | Kennedy (D) | Democrats | Democrats | +12.5% | +4.2% | +5.5% |
| 1963-69 | Johnson (D) | Democrats | Democrats | +31.5% | +5.5% | +7.7% |
| 1969-74 | Nixon (R) | Democrats | Democrats | −16.1% | −3.1% | −3.9% |
| 1974-77 | Ford (R) | Democrats | Democrats | +23.4% | +9.0% | +10.4% |
| 1977-81 | Carter (D) | Democrats | Democrats | +0.4% | +0.1% | +7.1% |
| 1981-87 | Reagan (R) | Democrats | Republicans | +98.5% | +12.2% | +10.7% |
| 1987-89 | Reagan (R) | Democrats | Democrats | +16.2% | +7.6% | +7.7% |
| 1989-93 | G.H.W. Bush (R) | Democrats | Democrats | +45.4% | +9.8% | +11.0% |
| 1993-95 | Clinton (D) | Democrats | Democrats | +17.8% | +8.8% | +2.8% |
| 1995-2001 | Clinton (D) | Republicans | Republicans | +177.6% | +18.5% | +18.6% |
| 2001 (Jan.-June) | G.W. Bush (R) | Republicans | Republicans | +5.6% | - | - |
| 2001-03 | G.W. Bush (R) | Republicans | Democrats | −23.0% | −15.3% | −19.7% |
| 2003-07 | G.W. Bush (R) | Republicans | Republicans | +44.8% | +9.7% | +11.8% |
| 2007-09 | G.W. Bush (R) | Democrats | Democrats | −33.6% | −18.1% | −22.1% |
| 2009-11 | Obama (D) | Democrats | Democrats | +39.8% | +18.7% | +22.2% |
| 2011-15 | Obama (D) | Republicans | Democrats | +54.0% | +11.4% | +13.1% |
| 2015-17 | Obama (D) | Republicans | Republicans | +10.7% | +5.1% | +4.8% |
| 2017-19 | Trump (R) | Republicans | Republicans | +18.3% | +9.0% | +5.4% |
| 2019-21 | Trump (R) | Democrats | Republicans | +32.5% | +14.7% | +22.4% |
| 2021-23 | Biden (D) | Democrats | Democrats | +7.2% | +3.6% | +0.5% |
| 2023-25 | Biden (D) | Republicans | Democrats | +27.9% | +13.0% | +23.5% |
| 2025- | Trump (R) | Republicans | Republicans | +20.5% so far | +10.8% | +13.6% |
A new stretch starts whenever the president or the party controlling either chamber changed. Stretches of a few weeks, such as the days between a new Congress taking its seats on Jan. 3 and the inauguration on Jan. 20, are counted in the totals above but not listed. Yearly rates are not shown for stretches under six months. Through Nov. 9, 2026 for the current stretch.
0497 Years of Power and Prices
Here is the whole record on one chart, with the party that held the White House, the Senate and the House shown in the bands across the top. Hover or tap anywhere on the line to see who was in charge that month. What stands out is how little the bands line up with the big moves: the market's worst falls, in 1929-32, 1973-74, 2000-02 and 2007-09, and its best runs, from 1949 to 1966, 1982 to 2000 and after 2009. Each of the best runs spanned presidents of both parties, and so did two of the four worst falls, 2000-02 and 2007-09.
The latest month is the month so far. On a log scale a move from 100 to 200 looks the same as one from 10,000 to 20,000.
05The Year of the Term
The pattern with the best record is not about party at all. Traders have long watched the four-year presidential cycle, and the numbers back up one part of it. Since 1929 the Dow has done best in the third year of a term, the year before a presidential election, averaging 12.7% and rising in 21 of 24 years. The midterm year and the election year have been weaker and about the same, averaging 4.1% and 4.5%. On the S&P 500 since 1951 the third year averaged 17.2%.
The usual explanation for the cycle is that presidents tend to take their hardest decisions early in a term and push for growth before they face voters again, but with only about two dozen terms in the record it can also be chance. The averages count only completed calendar years; the note under the chart shows how the year in progress is doing. More detail on how the market has done after each election is on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq history pages.
| Year of the term | Years | Average | Median | Years up | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (after the election) | 25 | +7.1% | +13.0% | 14 of 25 | 1933, +63.7% | 1937, −32.8% |
| Year 2 (midterm year) | 24 | +4.1% | +5.1% | 14 of 24 | 1954, +44.0% | 1930, −33.8% |
| Year 3 (pre-election year) | 24 | +12.7% | +14.8% | 21 of 24 | 1935, +38.5% | 1931, −52.7% |
| Year 4 (election year) | 24 | +4.5% | +7.3% | 17 of 24 | 1996, +26.0% | 2008, −33.8% |
Dow, calendar years 1929 to 2025.
06Why Presidents Get Too Much Credit
None of this means a president's party drives the market. The gap between the parties is real in the data, and economists have studied it for decades. Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov found in 2003 that the market's return over safe Treasury bills was about nine percentage points a year higher under Democratic presidents, and that the usual business-cycle measures did not explain it, so they called it a puzzle. Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi later offered one explanation: voters tend to choose Democrats when they are frightened, after crashes and in recessions, and stocks bought in frightened times tend to do well afterward. If that is right, the gap says more about when Democrats get elected than about what they do in office.
Look at the terms one by one and the gap looks different again. Of the completed terms since 1929, the median Democratic one gained 8.4% a year on the Dow and the median Republican one 9.4%; on the S&P 500 since 1953 the medians are 9.9% and 10.4%. The typical term under each party is about the same. The Democratic average is higher largely because the three worst presidencies, Hoover, Nixon and George W. Bush, were all Republican, and each ran into a crash or a deep bear market.
What a president's market record leaves out
- Presidents inherit markets. Obama took office in the middle of the financial crisis and the market bottomed seven weeks later. George W. Bush arrived as the dot-com bubble was bursting; the Nasdaq had peaked ten months before. Hoover's crash came seven months in. Where a term starts decides a lot of where it ends.
- The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, not the White House. Paul Volcker's rate increases to break inflation spanned Carter and Reagan, and the Fed chairs who followed served under presidents of both parties. Rate decisions often move stocks more than anything a president does.
- Congress writes the laws. Taxes and spending need both chambers and the president's signature, or enough votes to override a veto, which is why this article looks at Congress too.
- The world does not check who is president. Wars, oil shocks, pandemics and foreign crises land on whoever happens to be in office.
- The sample is small. There have been 17 presidencies since 1929, eight Democratic and nine Republican, counting Trump's two terms separately. One crash moves an average a long way.
- These are price changes, not total returns. Dividends added several percentage points a year for most of this period, more in the 1930s to 1950s, when yields were often 4% or higher. Including them would raise every figure, by more in the earlier decades.
07How This Was Calculated
Each term runs from the last close before the president took office to the last close before the next president took office. Inaugurations happen at noon, so inauguration day itself belongs to the new president. Three presidents took office mid-term. Harry Truman was sworn in on the evening of April 12, 1945, and Lyndon Johnson on the afternoon of Nov. 22, 1963, both after the market had closed, so their terms start from that day's close. Richard Nixon's resignation took effect at noon on Aug. 9, 1974, so Gerald Ford's term starts from the close on Aug. 8. Franklin Roosevelt's four terms are counted as one presidency, and so are Nixon's two; Donald Trump's two non-consecutive terms are counted separately.
The yearly figures are compound annual rates over the calendar time of each term. The after-inflation figures adjust with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for all urban consumers, using annual averages placed at mid-year and interpolated between them, with the latest monthly reading (September 2026) used for the most recent months; that is accurate to a few tenths of a point a year. The S&P 500 before March 1957 is its 90-stock predecessor index, and the Nasdaq Composite begins in February 1971. The NYSE also traded on Saturday mornings until 1952, but the closes on file are weekday closes, so where a term began or ended next to a Saturday session the Friday close is used; the effect is a fraction of a point.
Congress control follows the party that organized each chamber. New Congresses took their seats on March 4 until 1933 and on Jan. 3 from 1935. Democrats took over the House on Dec. 7, 1931, when the newly elected 72nd Congress first met, after deaths and special elections had erased the narrow Republican lead from the 1930 election. A Senate tied 50-50 counts for the vice president's party: Democrats from Jan. 3 to 20, 2001 under Vice President Al Gore, then Republicans under Dick Cheney until Sen. Jim Jeffords left the Republican Party and Democrats took control on June 6, 2001. In 2021, Republicans kept their majority until Jan. 20, when the two new Georgia senators were sworn in, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking ties. Party control is coded through the Congress whose term ends in January 2027; days after that are left out of the Congress figures until the next Congress is added. The daily closes behind every chart are the same ones used on the site's where did the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq trade on any date lookup.
08Sources
- DaveManuel.com: Dow Jones Industrial Average historical data (daily closes since 1928)
- DaveManuel.com: S&P 500 historical data (daily closes since 1950)
- DaveManuel.com: Nasdaq Composite historical data (daily closes since 1971)
- U.S. House of Representatives, History, Art and Archives: Party divisions of the House
- U.S. Senate: Party division
- U.S. House History: The opening of the 72nd Congress (1931)
- Congressional Research Service: Senate organization in the 107th Congress (2001)
- NPR via WYPR: New Georgia senators sworn in, Democrats now officially control the Senate (Jan. 20, 2021)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index
- Santa-Clara and Valkanov, The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market, Journal of Finance (2003)
- Pastor and Veronesi, Political Cycles and Stock Returns, NBER working paper 23184 (published in the Journal of Political Economy, 2020)