Will Barack Obama Be Re-Elected in 2012?
Believe it or not, the 2012 US Presidential election is just around the corner. It seems like it was only yesterday when Barack Obama defeated John McCain to become the 44th President of the United States.
The $64,000 question now is - will Barack Obama be re-elected in 2012, or will the Republicans take back the White House?
Things are looking fairly good for Barack Obama right now, but there are many things that could change over the next 19 months or so. The fight over the debt ceiling, for instance, could end up swinging the race dramatically in either direction.
Here is what Obama has going in his favor right now:
1. The GOP doesn't really have a strong front-runner for the 2012 presidential nomination. Mike Huckabee seems to be a popular choice amongst Republicans, but it doesn't look like he will run in 2012.
2. Barack Obama is going to raise a ridiculous amount of money for the 2012 race. It is going to be very hard to topple an incumbent who has $1 billion to spend.
3. The incumbency advantage.
As it stands right now, Obama is matching up very well against practically every possible Republican candidate. From Rasmussenreports.com:
Obama 45% vs Romney 40%
Obama 48% vs Palin 38%
Obama 43% vs Huckabee 43%
Obama 49% vs Gingrich 37%
Obama 42% vs Paul 34%
Obama 45% vs Pawlenty 35%
Obama 45% vs Daniels 32%
Obama 43% vs Cain 25%
Obama 42% vs Barbour 34%
Obama 42% vs Huntsman 31%
Obama 49% vs Trump 34%
On the other hand, a February Gallup poll said that US registered voters were evenly split as to whether they would vote for Barack Obama or the "Republican Party's candidate" in 2012. 45% of those surveyed said that they would vote for Obama, while 45% said that they would vote for the Republican candidate.
One more note - Intrade.com, which is an online prediction market where people can buy and sell "shares" of predictions for real money, currently has Barack Obama at 59% to win in 2012.
Much can change over the next year and a half, but as of this moment, Barack Obama looks to have a very good chance of winning in 2012.