DaveManuel.com - Data & History

US Tariff History: From 1789 to Liberation Day

Tariffs are the oldest tool in the American government's economic playbook - and right now they're being used more aggressively than at any point since the Great Depression. Here's the complete data: every major tariff era, every key law, the full rate history, and where things stand today after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs in February 2026.

2.5% Avg Rate Pre-2025
47% Peak April 2025
13.7% Rate Feb 2026
$1,500 Avg Household Cost 2026
$166B IEEPA Refunds Owed

Before the income tax existed, tariffs were how the United States government paid its bills. From the first Revenue Act of 1789 through the early 1900s, tariffs accounted for 50% to 90% of all federal revenue. They weren't controversial - they were the engine of the republic. The debates weren't about whether to have them, but how high to set them.

Then things got complicated. The income tax arrived in 1913, taking the revenue pressure off tariffs. The Smoot-Hawley disaster of 1930 - which pushed average rates to nearly 60% and helped turn a recession into the Great Depression - became the cautionary tale that defined trade policy for the next 80 years. The US spent most of the 20th century systematically dismantling tariff walls, through GATT, the WTO, and NAFTA, until the average rate bottomed out at 2.5% in 2024.

Then Donald Trump won re-election. On April 2, 2025 - a date his team branded "Liberation Day" - he signed executive orders imposing tariffs on essentially every country on earth, with rates ranging from 10% to 145% on China. The average effective US tariff rate spiked from 2.5% to approximately 47% in a matter of months - the highest level since the 1930s. The Supreme Court struck down a large chunk of those tariffs in February 2026 as unconstitutional. Trump replaced them the same day with new tariffs under a different legal authority. The story is still unfolding.

Dave's Note

The speed of the 2025 escalation is without modern precedent. The average effective tariff rate moved from 2.5% to approximately 47% in roughly 90 days - a shift that took Smoot-Hawley years of congressional wrangling to achieve, and one that Smoot-Hawley only managed on dutiable imports rather than all trade. Liberation Day applied simultaneously to nearly every trading partner on earth. The Supreme Court drew a constitutional line in February 2026, and the restructuring that followed reduced the rate substantially - but the economic consequences of nine months at elevated rates are still working through supply chains, prices, and bilateral relationships. The full accounting is not yet in.

Average US Tariff Rate, 1890-2026

This is what 136 years of US tariff policy looks like on a single chart. The Smoot-Hawley peak of 1932, the long post-WWII free trade decline, the near-zero era, and the sudden spike in 2025.

Average Effective Tariff Rate (All Imports)
US Tariff Rate, 1890-2026

Note: Pre-1930 figures use the "free and dutiable" rate on all imports. Post-1930 figures reflect the average effective rate on total imports. The 2025 spike reflects the April-May peak before SCOTUS intervention. The 2026 figure reflects the post-ruling rate of approximately 13.7%.

Six Distinct Chapters of US Tariff Policy

The Revenue Era 5-52%
Period
1789 - 1913

Tariffs were the federal government's primary funding mechanism before the income tax. The first tariff act, signed by George Washington in 1789, set rates of 5-15%. Over the following century rates climbed sharply, reaching their 19th-century peak with the Dingley Act of 1897 at roughly 52% on dutiable imports. The Civil War pushed rates up dramatically, and they never fully came back down. American industry - steel, textiles, manufacturing - was built behind these tariff walls.

Key laws: Revenue Act 1789, Tariff of Abominations 1828, Morrill Tariff 1861, McKinley Tariff 1890, Dingley Act 1897.

The Reform & Collapse Era 26-60%
Period
1913 - 1934

The 16th Amendment created the income tax in 1913, taking the revenue pressure off tariffs. The Underwood Tariff of 1913 cut rates sharply, to around 26%. Then Republicans returned to power and pushed rates back up - Fordney-McCumber 1922 went to ~40%, and Smoot-Hawley 1930 hit 47% on dutiable goods. With Depression-era deflation, the effective rate on dutiable imports reached 60% by 1932. Global trade collapsed 66% between 1929 and 1934. More than 25 countries retaliated. US exports fell 61% in four years ($5.4B to $2.1B).

Key laws: Underwood Tariff 1913, Fordney-McCumber 1922, Smoot-Hawley 1930.

The Multilateral Era ~10-15%
Period
1934 - 1970

FDR's Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934 was the first systematic effort to lower tariffs through bilateral deals. It gave the president authority to negotiate without Congress passing each agreement individually. Then came the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947 - the multilateral framework that governed world trade for the next five decades. The Kennedy Round (1967) cut average tariffs by about 35%. By 1970 the average rate was roughly 10-12%.

Key laws: Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act 1934, GATT 1947, Trade Expansion Act 1962.

The Free Trade Era 2.5-6%
Period
1970 - 2017

The Tokyo Round (1979) and Uruguay Round (1994) systematically dismantled tariff barriers across dozens of countries. NAFTA in 1994 virtually eliminated tariffs between the US, Canada, and Mexico. China's accession to the WTO in 2001 accelerated the integration of global supply chains. By 2024, the average US tariff rate stood at 2.5% - the lowest in over 100 years. This era produced massive gains in global trade volumes and was the economic backdrop for nearly every American alive today.

Key agreements: Tokyo Round 1979, NAFTA 1994, Uruguay Round/WTO 1995, China WTO 2001.

Trump 1.0: The Opening Salvo ~3-4%
Period
2018 - 2021

Trump's first term introduced two major tariff waves. Section 232 actions in 2018 imposed 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% on aluminum from most countries, citing national security. Section 301 actions against China imposed 25% tariffs on roughly $360 billion of Chinese goods, targeting technology transfer and intellectual property practices. China retaliated. A "Phase One" deal in January 2020 paused but didn't reverse most tariffs. Biden retained virtually all of them when he took office, and added tariffs on Chinese EVs, solar panels, and strategic goods.

Key actions: Section 232 steel/aluminum 2018, Section 301 China tariffs 2018-2019, Phase One deal Jan 2020.

Trump 2.0: Liberation Day 10-145%
Period
2025 - Present

Trump's second term moved far faster and broader than the first. In his first months he used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China citing the fentanyl crisis. On April 2, 2025 - Liberation Day - he imposed a universal 10% tariff on all countries plus additional country-specific rates. China escalated from 34% to 145% through retaliatory rounds. The average effective rate hit approximately 47%. In February 2026, the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs 6-3. Trump replaced them with Section 122 tariffs the same day.

Key actions: Liberation Day Apr 2, 2025; SCOTUS ruling Feb 20, 2026; Section 122 replacement Feb 20, 2026.

Every Major US Tariff Law Since 1789

The complete record. Every time Congress - or a president using emergency authority - made a significant change to US tariff policy.

Year Law / Action Avg Rate Change Key Detail Outcome
1789 Revenue Act of 1789 5-15% First tariff law. Signed by Washington. Primarily for revenue. Funded the new republic's debts
1828 Tariff of Abominations 38-45% Hated by Southern states. Led to the Nullification Crisis. Jackson forced a compromise tariff in 1833
1861 Morrill Tariff ~40% Signed by Lincoln. War revenue + industrial protection. High rates persisted for decades post-war
1890 McKinley Tariff ~49% Highest average rate to that point. Championed by future President McKinley. Contributed to 1890 midterm Republican losses
1894 Wilson-Gorman Tariff ~39% Democrats cut McKinley rates. Also introduced income tax (later struck down). Partial reduction only - lobbyists gutted it
1897 Dingley Act ~52% Highest average tariff in US history to that point. Republican restoration. Rates held for over a decade
1909 Payne-Aldrich Tariff ~40% Promised cuts, delivered little. Taft signed reluctantly. Political damage to Taft; split Republican party
1913 Underwood Tariff ~26% First significant cut since Civil War. Income tax created same year. WWI disrupted trade before impact was felt
1922 Fordney-McCumber Act ~40% Republicans return to high protection after WWI. European retaliation but US prosperity continued
1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff 47-60% 20,000 goods tariffed. 1,000+ economists petitioned Hoover to veto. Global trade fell 66%. Great Depression deepened.
1934 Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act Declining FDR. First systematic framework for bilateral tariff cuts. Set template for all future trade negotiation
1947 GATT Declining 23 countries. Multilateral framework. Replaced bilateral deals. Post-war global trade boom. US exports surge.
1962 Trade Expansion Act ~10% Kennedy. Led to Kennedy Round GATT cuts of ~35%. Major expansion of presidential tariff authority
1974 Trade Act of 1974 ~5-7% Created Section 301 (unfair trade practices) and Section 122 authorities. Tokyo Round negotiations followed
1994 NAFTA Near-zero (CAN/MEX) Eliminated tariffs between US, Canada, Mexico over 15 years. Tripled North American trade. Job controversy never resolved.
1995 WTO / Uruguay Round ~3-5% GATT replaced by WTO. 125 countries. Services included for first time. Global trade volumes tripled over next 20 years
2001 China WTO Accession 2.5-3% China joins WTO. US grants Permanent Normal Trade Relations. US manufacturing employment falls sharply 2001-2007
2018 Section 232: Steel & Aluminum 25% (steel) / 10% (alum) Trump 1.0. National security justification. Allies exempted then un-exempted. Steel prices rose. Trading partners retaliated.
2018-19 Section 301: China Tariffs 25% on ~$360B Four rounds. IP theft and forced technology transfer cited. Trade war. Phase One deal Jan 2020. Biden kept all tariffs.
Apr 2, 2025 Liberation Day - IEEPA Tariffs 10-145% Universal 10% floor plus country-specific rates. China reached 145%. Average rate hit ~47%. Markets dropped. SCOTUS challenge filed.
Feb 20, 2026 SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs Back to ~10% 6-3 ruling. $166B in collected tariffs subject to refund. Trump replaced same day with Section 122 tariffs at 10%
Apr 2, 2026 Section 232: Pharma Tariffs Up to 100% Pharmaceutical imports. Restructured steel/aluminum tariffs same day. Impact still being assessed

Smoot-Hawley: The Last Time the US Tried This

Every discussion of Trump's tariff policy eventually comes back to Smoot-Hawley, and for good reason. It's the clearest historical data point on what happens when the United States sharply raises tariffs in a globally interconnected economy.

The law was signed by Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. Over 1,000 economists had signed a petition asking him to veto it. Henry Ford spent an evening at the White House trying to persuade him. JP Morgan's chief executive said he nearly "went down on his knees" to beg Hoover to refuse. Hoover signed it anyway.

The results were catastrophic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23% in the first two weeks of June 1930 as Hoover signaled he would sign - stocks lost an estimated $1 billion the day he publicly committed to it. More than two dozen countries retaliated with targeted tariffs on US goods. World trade, which stood at roughly $36 billion in 1929, fell to approximately $12 billion by 1932 - a 66% collapse. US exports fell 61% from $5.4 billion to $2.1 billion. American imports fell 66% from $4.4 billion to $1.5 billion. US exports to Europe specifically dropped from $2.3 billion to $784 million.

66% Drop in global trade 1929-1934
61% Drop in US exports 1929-1933 ($5.4B to $2.1B)
25+ Countries that retaliated
1,000+ Economists who petitioned Hoover to veto

I almost went down on my knees to beg Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley-Smoot Tariff. That Act intensified nationalism all over the world.

- Thomas Lamont, Chief Executive, JP Morgan, 1930

The important nuance: Smoot-Hawley did not cause the Great Depression. The stock market crash had already happened in October 1929. But economists broadly agree it deepened and extended the Depression by triggering retaliatory trade barriers and collapsing the global trade system that was already under severe stress. In 1932, both Smoot and Hawley were voted out of office. The lesson stuck for most of the 20th century.

The current comparison is imprecise in one important way: US trade today is a much larger share of GDP than it was in 1930. The economy is more globally integrated, not less. Supply chains run through dozens of countries. That arguably makes the downside risks of sustained high tariffs larger, not smaller, than in 1930.

Dave's Note

The Smoot-Hawley comparison is instructive but imprecise. The 2025 tariffs peaked higher in percentage terms, were applied more broadly, and were partially reversed faster. The legal mechanisms, the global economic context, and the scale of US trade relative to GDP are all meaningfully different from 1930. What is not different is the core dynamic: a unilateral US tariff increase followed immediately by coordinated foreign retaliation. China responded within days. Canada escalated. The EU prepared countermeasures. That pattern has been consistent across every major US tariff episode in the historical record. The specific numbers change; the sequence does not.

Liberation Day: What Actually Happened

On April 2, 2025, Trump signed an executive order under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act imposing tariffs on essentially every country on earth. The baseline was 10% on all imports. On top of that were country-specific "reciprocal" tariffs calculated by dividing the US trade deficit with each country by that country's exports to the US - a methodology economists widely criticized as economically invalid.

What followed was one of the fastest escalations in trade policy history. China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US goods. Washington responded by raising the China rate to 84%, then 125%, then 145% on most Chinese imports. Beijing raised its own to 125% on US goods. At 145%, economists described the situation as a near-embargo - many categories of Chinese goods effectively stopped moving.

On April 9, Trump paused the country-specific tariffs for 90 days for most nations (except China) while leaving the 10% baseline in place. A series of bilateral deals followed: Japan settled at 15%, Indonesia at 19%, UK at 10% with pharma exemptions. China reached a 90-day truce in May 2025 - rates came down to roughly 30% - extended through November 2026. Canada settled at approximately 35% on non-USMCA goods. USMCA-compliant goods remained largely exempt.

February 20, 2026: The Supreme Court Intervenes

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. The court found that tariffs are a tax, and taxing authority belongs to Congress - not the executive branch operating under emergency powers. The ruling struck down the Liberation Day tariff framework and all IEEPA-based tariffs imposed since January 2025.

$166B in IEEPA tariff revenue had already been collected from over 330,000 businesses. The government indicated it would process refunds, though the mechanics of returning that amount were unclear.

Within hours of the ruling, Trump signed a new executive order imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 - a different legal authority that allows a 150-day emergency tariff. That 10% floor is currently in effect and expires on July 24, 2026. The Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and semiconductors - which rest on separate legal authority - were not affected by the SCOTUS ruling and remain in place.

The Tax Policy Center estimated that even after the SCOTUS ruling, the remaining tariff structure amounts to an average household cost of approximately $1,050-$1,500 in 2026 - the largest US tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993. The TPC projected the current tariff regime would raise approximately $185 billion in federal revenue in 2026 alone, with $911 billion over the 2026-2035 period.

Current US Tariff Rates by Major Trading Partner (April 2026)

The post-SCOTUS tariff landscape. These are approximate effective rates - the actual tariff a given shipment faces depends on the specific product, its HS code, its country of origin certification, and which layers of tariffs stack on it.

Approximate Effective Rate on Goods
Current US Tariff Rates by Country / Category (April 2026)
China
Section 301 layers + Section 122 + truce. Most categories ~30-35%.
~30-35%
Canada
USMCA goods largely exempt. Non-USMCA ~35%.
~35%
Mexico
USMCA compliant: 0-25%. Non-USMCA: 25-35%.
25-35%
European Union
Section 122 baseline. Negotiations ongoing.
10%
Japan
Bilateral deal. Autos/timber have separate rates.
15%
United Kingdom
10% base + pharma/medtech exemption deal.
10%
Indonesia
Full bilateral agreement signed February 2026.
19%
Vietnam / Cambodia
High rates. No deal. Targeted as China-bypass routes.
25-40%+
Steel (All Countries)
Section 232. Not affected by SCOTUS ruling.
25%
Automobiles (All Countries)
Section 232. Announced April 2025. Not struck down.
25%
Pharmaceuticals
Section 232. Announced April 2, 2026. Up to 100%.
Up to 100%
Advanced Semiconductors
January 2026. Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X targeted.
25%

What Tariffs Cost the Average American Household in 2026

Tariffs are paid by US importers - not by foreign governments. That's the fundamental thing most people get wrong about how they work. When a US company imports goods and pays a tariff, those costs flow downstream into the prices Americans pay at the store, the factory, and the hospital.

The Tax Foundation estimates that the 2025-2026 Trump tariff regime amounts to an average tax increase of approximately $1,500 per US household in 2026 - making it the largest US tax increase as a share of GDP since 1993. The Tax Policy Center puts the figure at approximately $1,050 per tax unit. The range reflects different assumptions about how much of the tariff cost is absorbed by importers versus passed through to consumers.

The distribution is slightly regressive - the bottom income quintile sees their average federal tax rate rise by about 0.9 percentage points, compared to 0.7 percentage points for the top quintile. This is because lower-income households spend more of their budget on imported goods like clothing, electronics, and household items relative to their income.

$1,500 Average household cost in 2026 (Tax Foundation estimate)
$185B Federal tariff revenue projected for 2026
$911B Projected 10-year tariff revenue (2026-2035)
+0.9% Federal tax rate increase for bottom income quintile

Services - which aren't directly tariffed - pick up about one-sixth of the total tariff burden indirectly, because metals, chemicals, and electronics that face tariffs are inputs to healthcare, professional services, and government services. The tariff impact is broader than the product categories it directly targets.

One important caveat: if the Section 122 tariffs are not renewed when they expire on July 24, 2026, and if Congress does not act to replace them, a significant portion of the current tariff structure could unwind. That would reduce the household cost estimate substantially. The political and legislative picture for what happens after July 2026 is, as of April 2026, genuinely unclear.

Dave's Note

Whether the tariffs are working depends entirely on what metric you apply. As a revenue instrument, the 2025-2026 structure is performing - $185 billion projected in 2026 alone is a significant fiscal contribution. As a trade deficit reducer, the early evidence points the other way: the US trade deficit widened in Q1 2025 as businesses front-loaded imports ahead of the April 2 deadline, a textbook response that temporarily inflates the deficit before any adjustment occurs. As a manufacturing reshoring strategy, the timeline for meaningful assessment is 5-10 years at minimum. What the historical record does establish clearly is that every major US tariff escalation - from Smoot-Hawley to the first Trump term - produced immediate upward pressure on domestic prices and immediate retaliatory responses from trading partners. The 2025 episode followed that pattern precisely.

The July 2026 Cliff and Open Questions

The Section 122 tariffs that replaced the IEEPA tariffs after the SCOTUS ruling are legally limited to 150 days. That clock runs out on July 24, 2026. At that point, the administration has three options: let them expire, seek congressional authorization for new tariffs, or find another legal authority to extend them.

The Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals - which rest on the 1962 Trade Expansion Act - are not time-limited and are not affected by the SCOTUS ruling. They remain in force indefinitely unless Congress acts or a new trade deal negotiates them away.

The US-China tariff truce negotiated in November 2025 runs through November 10, 2026. The two sides are in ongoing negotiations over a broader deal. The current Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods (averaging ~25% before any additions) have been in place since 2018 and were maintained through three years of the Biden administration - suggesting they have bipartisan political support regardless of what happens to the Liberation Day framework.

The broader constitutional question is also not fully settled. The SCOTUS ruling covered the IEEPA tariffs specifically. It did not rule on the limits of Section 232 or Section 122 authority. Further legal challenges to the remaining tariff structure are possible.

Bottom Line

The arc of US tariff history from 1789 to 2024 is a story of high protection building American industry, a catastrophic overcorrection in 1930, and then nine decades of systematic movement toward free trade - driven by the hard lesson that unilateral protection invites retaliation and shrinks the overall economic pie. The reversal that began in 2018 accelerated sharply in 2025, and the Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling introduced a constitutional constraint that neither Congress nor the administration had fully anticipated. Where the rate ultimately stabilizes depends on what Congress does after the Section 122 clock expires in July 2026, which bilateral deals get finalized, and what the next election cycle produces. What the historical record makes unmistakably clear is that tariff policy is never permanently settled. Every era believes it has found the correct balance between protection and openness. The next era almost invariably revises that judgment.