2026 British Columbia general election: Polls and Seat Projection

Elections: British Columbia · Canada (federal) · Alberta · Saskatchewan · Manitoba · Ontario · Quebec · New Brunswick · Nova Scotia · Prince Edward Island · Newfoundland and Labrador

Election day. This is the final projection from the polls published before election day; official results come from the elections agency as ballots are counted.

01The Polling Average

Weighted average of 26 polls ending in the 30 days to October 23, 2026 (60 days when fewer than three polls are available): newer polls and larger samples count for more (weight halves every 7 days), and each firm's older polls count half, so no single pollster dominates. Last election: 2024 British Columbia general election.

02Seat Projection

Out of 5,000 simulated elections. The chart shows how often each seat total came up for the leading parties; the dashed line is a majority (47 of 93).

03District by District

Safe: 34 BC Conservatives, 16 BC NDP, 2 BC Greens · Likely: 10 BC Conservatives, 8 BC NDP, 1 BC Greens · Lean: 9 BC NDP, 9 BC Conservatives · Toss-up: 3 BC NDP, 1 BC Conservatives. A district is Safe when one party wins it in 95% or more of the simulations, Likely at 80%, Lean at 60%, and a Toss-up below that.

Projected vote is the central estimate for each district; Chance is how often the projected party won it in the simulations.

04Latest Polls

The most recent 25 of 65 polls in the table, by the last day in the field. Columns: CON = BC Conservatives, NDP = BC NDP, GRN = BC Greens, ONE = OneBC, CTR = CentreBC.

05Every Federal and Provincial Election

06How It Works

The polls. Polls are collected from the opinion polling tables maintained on Wikipedia, which list each pollster's release with its dates, sample size and results, and checked automatically several times a day. The average weights each poll by how recent it is and by its sample size, and counts each firm's older polls at half weight. Smaller parties that only some pollsters list separately are scaled with Others so the shares add up to 100.

The seats. The projection starts from the official result in every district at the last election and moves each party's vote up or down in proportion to its change in the polling average; parties that did not run last time get their average share everywhere. It then runs 5,000 simulated elections, each with its own polling miss across the whole province and its own local swings in every district, to turn the average into seat ranges and odds. The polling miss assumed grows the further away election day is.

What it leaves out. This is a simple, transparent model. It does not adjust for individual candidates, incumbents who switched parties, or regional differences in the polls, so its district calls are less precise than the provincewide totals. Parties that skipped a district last time start from zero there, and new parties' seats are hard to project from a uniform share.

07Sources

• Poll results: Wikipedia, "2026 British Columbia general election", compiled from each pollster's release; text and tables licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
• Last-election results by district: 2024 British Columbia general election, final official results from Elections BC, as compiled on Wikipedia