45th Ontario general election: Polls
The DaveManuel.com polling average for the 45th Ontario general election, built from every poll in Wikipedia's polling table for the election and updated several times a day. Pick any federal or provincial election below.
Elections: British Columbia · Canada (federal) · Alberta · Saskatchewan · Manitoba · Ontario · Quebec · New Brunswick · Nova Scotia · Prince Edward Island · Newfoundland and Labrador
01The Polling Average
| Party | Average | 4 weeks earlier |
|---|---|---|
| PC | 39.5% | 40.1% |
| Liberal | 31.5% | 32.7% |
| NDP | 20.7% | 19.2% |
| Others | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Green | 4.0% | 3.0% |
Weighted average of 3 polls ending in the 30 days to October 19, 2026 (60 days when fewer than three polls are available): newer polls and larger samples count for more (weight halves every 7 days), and each firm's older polls count half, so no single pollster dominates.
02Latest Polls
| Pollster | Ended | PC | LIB | NDP | OTH | GRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | Oct 19, 2026 | 40 | 32 | 20 | 4 | 4 |
| Mainstreet Research | Sep 29, 2026 | 34 | 26 | 27 | 8 | 5 |
| Liaison Strategies | Sep 19, 2026 | 40 | 34 | 21 | 3 | 2 |
| Abacus Data | Aug 24, 2026 | 42 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 4 |
| Liaison Strategies | Aug 24, 2026 | 39 | 35 | 20 | 3 | 2 |
| Pallas Data | Aug 9, 2026 | 37 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 3 |
| Liaison Strategies | Jul 21, 2026 | 33 | 38 | 24 | 3 | 2 |
| EKOS | Jul 16, 2026 | 32 | 26 | 28 | 9 | 5 |
| Abacus Data | Jun 17, 2026 | 41 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 5 |
| Liaison Strategies | Jun 15, 2026 | 35 | 38 | 22 | 1 | 4 |
| Abacus Data | May 20, 2026 | 41 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 5 |
| Liaison Strategies | May 16, 2026 | 37 | 37 | 20 | 2 | 4 |
| Leger | May 11, 2026 | 39 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 6 |
| Mainstreet Research | May 7, 2026 | 35 | 31 | 24 | 5 | 6 |
| Liaison Strategies | Apr 26, 2026 | 36 | 38 | 20 | 2 | 4 |
| Pallas Data | Apr 22, 2026 | 37 | 32 | 24 | 1 | 6 |
| Abacus Data | Apr 21, 2026 | 37 | 36 | 17 | 6 | 5 |
| Pallas Data | Apr 8, 2026 | 40 | 31 | 22 | 2 | 6 |
| Abacus Data | Apr 6, 2026 | 39 | 31 | 21 | 5 | 5 |
| Liaison Strategies | Mar 29, 2026 | 39 | 36 | 18 | 3 | 5 |
| Ipsos | Mar 11, 2026 | 42 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 3 |
| Abacus Data | Mar 11, 2026 | 44 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 5 |
| Liaison Strategies | Feb 22, 2026 | 40 | 36 | 17 | 3 | 5 |
| Abacus Data | Feb 10, 2026 | 44 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 6 |
| Pallas Data | Jan 24, 2026 | 43 | 30 | 18 | 4 | 5 |
The most recent 25 of 49 polls in the table, by the last day in the field. Columns: PC = PC, LIB = Liberal, NDP = NDP, OTH = Others, GRN = Green.
03Every Federal and Provincial Election
| Election | Leading | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | BC Conservatives 43.5% | +4.9 | |
| Canada (federal) | Liberal 47.2% | +16.5 | |
| Alberta | United Conservative 45.3% | +0.1 | |
| Saskatchewan | Saskatchewan Party 48.0% | +2.0 | |
| Manitoba | NDP 60.0% | +31.0 | |
| Ontario | PC 39.5% | +7.9 | |
| Quebec | No polls published yet | ||
| New Brunswick | Liberal 46.0% | +16.0 | |
| Nova Scotia | NDP 35.7% | +4.0 | |
| Prince Edward Island | Green 46.0% | +22.0 | |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | Liberal 42.0% | +12.0 | |
04How It Works
The polls. Polls are collected from the opinion polling tables maintained on Wikipedia, which list each pollster's release with its dates, sample size and results, and checked automatically several times a day. The average weights each poll by how recent it is and by its sample size, and counts each firm's older polls at half weight. Smaller parties that only some pollsters list separately are scaled with Others so the shares add up to 100.
Seat projections are added for an election once its last-election results by district are loaded into the model.
05Sources
- Poll results: Wikipedia, "45th Ontario general election", compiled from each pollster's release; text and tables licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
Cite This Page
This page is free to cite and link. Its figures come from Wikipedia opinion polling tables (CC BY-SA 4.0), compiled from each pollster; Elections BC official results and are kept current, so please include the date you accessed it.
| Format | Citation | |
|---|---|---|
| Plain | Dave Manuel, “Canadian Election Polls and Seat Projections: BC, Federal and Every Province,” DaveManuel.com, https://www.davemanuel.com/canada-election-polls.php (accessed October 24, 2026). | Copy |
| APA | Manuel, D. (2026). Canadian Election Polls and Seat Projections: BC, Federal and Every Province. DaveManuel.com. Retrieved October 24, 2026, from https://www.davemanuel.com/canada-election-polls.php | Copy |
| Chicago | Manuel, Dave. “Canadian Election Polls and Seat Projections: BC, Federal and Every Province.” DaveManuel.com. Accessed October 24, 2026. https://www.davemanuel.com/canada-election-polls.php. | Copy |
| Wikipedia | {{cite web |url=https://www.davemanuel.com/canada-election-polls.php |title=Canadian Election Polls and Seat Projections: BC, Federal and Every Province |last=Manuel |first=Dave |website=DaveManuel.com |access-date=2026-10-24}} | Copy |
| Link (HTML) | <a href="https://www.davemanuel.com/canada-election-polls.php">Canadian Election Polls and Seat Projections: BC, Federal and Every Province (DaveManuel.com)</a> | Copy |
Source data: Wikipedia opinion polling tables (CC BY-SA 4.0), compiled from each pollster; Elections BC official results. Updates: Every 3 hours. How we build our data pages.